The longer Iāve worked as an investor, the more Iāve come to realize that successful investing is a bottom-up process. By bottom-up, I mean it starts with the very basics of a company (its products and markets) and gradually works upwards from there (i.e., balance sheet, cash flow, valuation ratios).
The problem is that most people are strongly averse to this approach. I donāt know exactly why, but thereās a natural propensity to view the investing world top-down. This clouds nearly every investment discussion. Heck, Iām guilty of it myself.
Hereās how it works. An investment discussion (particularly in the media) invariably starts with the Federal Reserve and the macro economy. Then it works its way down to partisan politics: the budget, taxes and the debt. Throw in a discussion of EMH and how bad hedge funds are (curiously, weāre never told the flip side of EMHāthat itās impossible to lose to the market consistently before fees), and maybe touch on CAPE. Then if weāre lucky, one or two comments about Apple. And weāre done.
This is a huge disservice to readers, and almost none of it matters to being a good investor. The skill set one needs to be a shrewd stock picker doesnāt involve complex math or defending your political party. Rather, itās closer to that possessed by an investigative reporter or a private eye. Donāt laugh. Whenever Iām in a department store, Iāve gotten in the habit of asking the kid behind the counter, āWhatās popular?ā Heāll tell you. In fact, heāll tell you a lot. Just by doing this, you can learn a lot more than what a stock screener will tell you.
Look, I love financial ratios as much as anyone, but the information they give you is very limited. Iāve long called the Balance Sheet the overlooked cute sister of the 10-Q report, but even that only says so much. Hereās an important generality in corporate finance: a good company isnāt usually transformed into a bad one by taking on too much debt. Sure, itās possible, and certainly it has happened before. But what really happens is that companies take on too much debt precisely because theyāre bad. They have a growing need to mask their deficiencies.
A few years ago, I stumbled across Nicholas Financial (NICK). Iāve probably written about this stock more than any other. NICK isnāt followed by any analyst. It rarely generates news. I visited a branch office and later called up the CFO. He patiently answered my many questions. With a little bit of work, I probably knew more about them than anyone outside HQ.
I remember when NICK dropped below $1.64 per share five years ago. Itās really hard to believe in efficient markets when your stock is trading at one-fifth book value and roughly one times earnings for the year after next. The market was offering me dollars for dimes, and I bought them. (NICK just agreed to be bought out at $16 per share.) Inflation, Obamacare, the euroānone of that mattered. To be fair, the Fedās low rates played a role in helping NICK, but connecting that policy to being a NICK bull would be a stretch.
I also have a growing distrust and outright aversion to the tiresome bull-bear debate (Barry Ritholtz has led the charge on this for years). Itās a fun parlor game, but again, how does it help investors? Not much.
Another favorite game of the top-down view is to find a sector that ought to be big in the future. I know! Green Energy! Robotics! Biotech! China! Chinese robots producing green energy biotech!!
A basic fact about business is that money can be made just about anywhere. Your objective shouldnāt be finding the next so-and-so. You should try to find superior ROE. No top-down approach would lead anyone to Danaher (DHR), but itās been one of the best-performing stocks of the last few decades. Their stable of businesses is pretty ordinary. Thatās what they do, and they do it well.
My advice to investors is to grant yourself a healthy distance from those who view investing from 30,000 feet. Itās easy to wave your hand and say everythingās overpriced and the Dow could go to 1,000. Instead, if youāre interested in a company, start at the ground level and found out why itās successful.
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 15th, 2014 at 7:56 am