âCharacterâ
by Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, Raymond James
September 30, 2013
âThe true prophet is not he who predicts the future, but he who reads history and reveals the present.â
... Eric Hoffer, American moral and social philosopher
I could almost hear my history teacher espousing Eric Hofferâs words last week as I was asked by a particularly prescient media type if trust and character would really command a âpremiumâ price/earnings multiple for the stock market? My response was âof course,â and as an example I referred him to a quote from John Pierpont Morgan, who built his familyâs fortunes into a colossal financial empire. The referenced verbal exchange took place when an aging J.P. Morgan testified before a House of Representativesâ committee investigating the financial interests of the âHouse of Morgan.â A tough lawyer named Samuel Untermyer queried him. The conversation went like this:
Untermyer: âIs not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?â
Morgan: âNo sir, the first thing is character.â
Untermyer: âBefore money or property?â
Morgan: âBefore money or property or anything else. Money cannot buy it ... because a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom.â
While Morganâs language is from an era gone by, the essential insight is as clear today as it was decades ago. I recalled the Morgan/Untermyer exchange as I read Fridayâs Wall Street Journal, in particular, âRobbery at J.P Morgan.â The article began, âGovernment lawyers are backing up the truck again at J.P Morgan Chase (JPM/$52.24/Strong Buy) to extract another haul from the countryâs largest bank.â Recall that JPM is one bank that did not need taxpayer assistance during the financial fiasco of 2008, or ever since. To me that speaks volumes about the character of JPMâs CEO, Jamie Dimon. This lack of government dependence, combined with Mr. Dimonâs remarks about how the Dodd-Frank financial reform act is hurting the economy, is likely what put Mr. Dimon in the governmentâs crosshairs. This also explains why the government is beating up on JPM again over the âLondon Whaleâsâ $6 billion trading loss, even though there were NO public costs. The irony is that Jamie Dimon is one of the few bank CEOs who avoided the credit excesses. He also, at the pleading of the government, rescued Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual (WaMu). Then-FDIC Chairperson Shelia Bair said, â[The WaMu situation] could have posed significant challenges without a ready buyer. ... Some are coming to Washington for help; others are coming to Washington to help.â Now it appears Washington is suing JPM for helping. I have no doubt about Jamie Dimonâs character. I do, however, doubt the character of some of the folks inside the D.C. Beltway, on both sides of the political equation, who are about to close down the government.
As of this writing, it looks like a governmental shutdown is a fait accompli. But having lived in D.C., many times these things are over-dramatized. Tonight marks the end of the U.S. fiscal year and without an agreement on a âcontinuing resolutionâ (CR) the government will indeed shut down at midnight. Following that comes the much more important âdebt ceilingâ debate to prevent a U.S. Treasury default on October 17th. Since 1970 there have been 17 âshutdowns,â and guess what, we have survived every single one of them. Interestingly, the stock market has historically done worse the day and week after the shutdown than it did leading up to the event. Moreover, in 11 of those 17 instances the S&P 500 (SPX/1691.75) was higher one month later. Like I did with all the âtaperingâ noise, I tuned out the noise (hints, leaks, etc.) and paid attention to the data, not the rumors; I am doing the same thing here. That âtuning out the noiseâ was why I was adamant there would be no tapering at the September FOMC meeting. I think the same holds true with this âshutdownâ and/or âdefaultâ situation. The way Washington works is all about political interest and political survival. As Senator John McCain told the New York Times last week, âWe will end up not shutting down the government, not defaulting and not defunding Obamacare. Iâve seen how this movie ends, but I donât know all the scenes.â Speaking to this âpolitical interests/survivalâ issue, the President is not up for election again, the Senators and Congress folks are. Itâs pretty easy to figure out who wins that game of chicken. Moreover, the budget deficit is collapsing at a much faster rate than even the non-partisan CBO suggests. That trend reduces support for tax increases and spending cuts. As the astute GaveKal organization notes:
The big spending reductions implemented since the 2011 budget crisis have left little scope for further significant reductions in discretionary spending. Fiscal conservatives now recognize that the only programs large enough to transform the budgetary outlook are Social Security, Medicare and defense â but these programs tend to be strongly supported by elderly and conservative voters. That, in turn, implies a political transformation. The Republicans are no longer trying to extract major spending reductions in exchange for their budgetary votes. ... Republicans are now using budget votes to advance a political cause, the abolition of Obamacare, which is purely symbolic because it offers no scope of compromise with the President and therefore no chance of enactment.
Understanding these points makes the upcoming battle predictable. Rather than destroy our countryâs credit with a default, and a long-term closing of the government, this charade will be resolved over the next few weeks. The Republicans, rather than be blamed for the whole thing, will âcaveâ and the shutdown/debt ceiling issues will be resolved just like what happened with the âfiscal cliff,â which at the time I said was also a non-event. While this is not as much of a non-event, we will get through this, just like we got through what the media termed the fiscal cliff âArmageddon.â When we do, the equity markets may do what they did following the drama of the alleged fiscal cliff âcrisisâ; the SPX rallied 100 points before experiencing a decent pullback.
The call for this week: I am in the Washington D.C. area consulting with political types, seeing accounts, and speaking at events for our financial advisors. I began this commentary with the quote, âThe true prophet is not he who predicts the future, but he who reads history and reveals the present.â If you study the history of governmental shutdowns, there have been 17 of them since 1970 (see chart on page 3), and it becomes clear the shutdown and potential default will get settled over the next few weeks. If so, the stock marketâs attention should revert to the improving economy, gasoline prices at their lowest level since January, improving earnings, better economic numbers out of China, well you get the idea. Interestingly, it has been the mega cap stocks that have been the weakest, which is why the D-J Industrials (INDU/15258.24) has been weaker than most of the other major indices. I still think the near-term directional battle will be fought at my longstanding 1684 âpivot pointâ basis the SPX. This week should provide the answer. One of the good things about the recent decline is that you get to see which sectors are holding up the best. Based on my methodology, Financials, Industrials, Consumer/NONCYC, and Consumer/CYCLIC are currently the strongest sectors. This morning, however, it looks like the opening prices are going to slice right through my 1684 âpivot point.â But, it is the closing price that counts. Fortunately, you should still have a decent cash reserve since I recommended only recommitting a little of our cash three weeks ago.
Copyright Š Raymond James