Below is a look at our trading range chart for the S&P 500 over the last year. The light blue shading represents the index's normal trading range, which is between one standard deviation above and below the 50-day moving average (white line). The red shading represents between one and two standard deviations above the 50-day, while the green shading represents between one and two standard deviations below the 50-day. Moves into and above the red zone are considered overbought, and moves into or below the green zone are considered oversold.
As shown below, the S&P 500 has moved up to the top of the red zone over the last week, putting it right near two standard deviations above its 50-day. The index may have another day or so of gains in it, but usually when it gets this extended, a short-term pull back is in store.
Three sectors are currently trading more than two standard deviations above their 50-day moving averages -- Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Technology. As you'll see in the charts below, though, Financials and Consumer Discretionary look a lot different than Technology. And while they're not quite above their red zones, Industrials, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Telecom are all very overbought here as well.
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