Dear All
It is finally here. No, I do not mean the ECB's botched effort at rescuing the financial sector and promoting the carry trade. I am, of course, talking about Christmas. The season to be jolly and perform obscure acts like singing on your neighbours doorstep despite never usually speaking to them.
"Christmas waves a magic wand over this world, and behold, everything is softer and more beautiful"
Norman Vincent Peale
Here at Tick By Tick, we take Christmas very seriously. As a result, we feel obliged to provide you, the loyal reader, with a present of our own. (Drumroll please). I would like to present Tick By Tick's 12 Economic Facts of Christmas
- In the last 12 months, the Federal Reserve has increased Money Supplied to the Economy (M2) by 9.9%.
- Despite the Insolvency of Europe. If you had shorted EURUSD at this very day last year, you would have only made a 0.7% profit.
- The Greek Stock Index (ASE) has outperformed Citigroup by 10.36% if held for the last 5 years. If you discount the reverse stock split, Citigroup is now trading at $2.60 vs. $55.70 in 2007.
- Consumer Goods producer Procter & Gamble can now borrow money over a 5 year period for less than every Eurozone member with the exceptions of Germany and Finland.
- Linkedin, Pandora and Groupon are all loss leading companies. Yet, if you had bought their stock at IPO, you would have made +171%, 8.9% and 50% in the first days trading.
- China's stock market is now trading at the same level as it was during Q3 of 2000. During this period, Chinese GDP has almost tripled.
- The sum of all US debt both Public and Private equates to $56tn with underfunded future liabilities of $1 037 000 per capita. The official US public debt figure reached 100% of GDP just yesterday.
- "Legendary" Hedge Fund Manager John Paulson, about whom a variety of books have been written, has lost over 50% of his funds value in this past year.
- In a Bloomberg poll held during December 2011, eleven Sell Side Analysts predicted, on average, that the S&P 500 would grow by 11% to 1379. Of these, the most bullish was Goldman Sachs who openly predicted a 17% rally. The index of the 500 largest American companies is currently down 1.49% YTD.
- Being long S&P Volatility has been a successful strategy for 4 of the last 5 years.
- In the last month, Bloomberg have published 25 179 articles with the words Europe and Concern included in the prose.
....And Finally
12. Santa has to visit 832 Homes per Second to deliver all of his gifts.
Before I leave you for Turkey and a range of other customary foods, I would like to openly thank Grant Williams for encouraging me to start Tick By Tick and write independently. Without his words of wisdom, criticism and encouragement, the prose that you are reading would be nothing more than synapses firing in the grey matter that is my brain. I would also like to thank you, the reader, for showing faith in my work and both sharing and critiquing my ideas. 2012 is going to be a very important year and I look forward to making it that little bit more interesting for all of you.
Merry Christmas
George Adcock
Founder
