China’s economy continues to be full of surprises. Estimates from CLSA show China’s macroeconomic growth outpaced consensus estimates in 2010. Many expected a dramatic slowdown as government stimulus expired, but strength from the private sector pushed GDP growth above 10 percent.
CLSA says 2011 will mostly be the same story. The firm expects China to grow about 9.5 percent this year, fueled by a mixture of investment (5.5 percent) and consumption (4 percent).
Once again, this growth is expected without the help of the U.S. and Western Europe, whose economies continue to be two steps forward, one step back. This means exports are expected to contribute little-to-nothing to the country’s economic growth in 2011.
We witnessed many shifts in the global economic balance over the past decade but none as profound as the tilt toward China. These three maps illustrate countries that have equal GDP to Chinese provinces in 2000, 2009 and 2020.
In 2000, China’s union of provinces was similar to poor, developing countries. By 2009, China had grown into a union of provinces similar to many booming, developing countries. By 2020, it is projected that China GDP will be the sum of top-tier developing countries.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
