Doug Kass, founder of Seabreeze Partners, a regular guest on CNBC, who is dubbed the anti-Cramer, as well as the “Peerless Prognosticator of Palm Beach,” has called the top for the markets for 2009. Doug Kass' most recent, prescient call was this 5 month rally in the market, just 2 days before it began in March, Printing An Important Market Bottom.
Here are his ten reasons why he thinks so:
My view remains that it is different this time. Again (now for emphasis), the typical self-sustaining economic recovery of the past will not be repeated in the immediate future for 10 important reasons that will weigh on the economy and markets like the governor that controlled the speed of the Good Humor truck I drove when I was in my teens during the summer:
- Cost cuts are a corporate lifeline and so is fiscal stimulus, but both have a defined and limited life.
- Cost cuts (exacerbated by wage deflation) pose an enduring threat to the consumer, which is still the most significant contributor to domestic growth.
- The consumer entered the current downcycle exposed and levered to the hilt, and net worths have been damaged and will need to be repaired through higher savings and lower consumption.
- The credit aftershock will continue to haunt the economy.
- The effect of the Fed’s monetarist experiment and its impact on investing and spending still remain uncertain.
- While the housing market has stabilized, its recovery will be muted, and there are few growth drivers to replace the important role taken by the real estate markets in the prior upturn.
- Commercial real estate has only begun to enter a cyclical downturn.
- While the public works component of public policy is a stimulant, the impact might be more muted than is generally recognized. There may be less than meets the eye as most of the current fiscal policy initiatives represent transfer payments that have a negative multiplier and create work disincentives.
- Municipalities have historically provided economic stability — no more.
- Federal, state and local taxes will be rising as the deficit must eventually be funded, and high-tax health and energy bills also loom.
(h/t: The Reformed Broker)
