ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan declares the recession over with the US economy tracking up to 2.4% in the third quarterâŚ
There is a great deal of skepticism about the economy, and many mixed offerings in terms of opinion on outlook. The Slate.com article, The Recession is Over!, discusses the contrasting view of Lakshman Achuthan, of ECRI (Economic Cycles Research Institute), one of the most highly regarded independent economists, known for a long list of accurate and prescient economic forecasts, who points out that three significant leading indicators are currently flashing green.
The economic data that get the most play in the newsâ unemployment, retail salesâare coincident or lagging indicators and historically have not revealed much about directional changes in the economy. ECRI's proprietary methodology breaks down indicators into a long-leading index, a weekly leading index, and a short-leading index. "We watch for turning points in the leading indexes to anticipate turning points in the business cycle and the overall economy," says Achuthan. It's tough to recognize transitions objectively "because so often our hopes and fears can get in the way." To prevent exuberance and despair from clouding vision, ECRI looks for the three P's: a pronounced rise in the leading indicators; one that persists for at least three months; and one that's pervasive, meaning a majority of indicators are moving in the same direction.
The long-leading indexâwhich goes back to the 1920s and doesn't include stock prices but does include measures related to credit, housing, productivity, and profitsâhits bottom and starts to climb about six months before a recession ends. The weekly leading index calls directional shifts about three to four months in advance. And the short-leading index, which includes stock prices and jobless claims, is typically the last to turn up.
All three are now flashing green. According to Achuthan, the long-leading index growth rate has been recovering since November 2008, the weekly leading index has been recovering since last December, and the short-leading index growth rate bottomed in February 2009. In sequence, each turned up, "and by April the three Ps had all been satisfied." Sure, corporate profits continue to disappoint, and the unemployment rate is climbing. But for ECRI, which navigates by relying exclusively on its instruments, that's only a part of their picture. They're the Spocks of the economic forecasting crowdâunemotional, uninvested in anything but the logic of what history and their dashboard tell them. "From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks," says Achuthan. "The recession is ending somewhere this summer." In fact, it may already be over.
The Recession is Over!
http://www.slate.com/id/2222742/
Source: Slate.com/Washington Post
