by Scott Krisiloff, Avondale Asset Management
Each week we read dozens of transcripts from earnings calls and presentations as part of ourĀ investment process. Below is a weekly post which contains some of the most important quotes about the economy and industry trends from those transcripts. Click here to receive these posts weekly via email.
This Weekās Post: Dog Days of Summer
The last two weeks of August are typically two of the slowest weeks of the year for the business community. Not many companies were speaking this week, but the comments seemed to reflect the seasonal mood. Although the economic weakness from the beginning of the year has bottomed out, the upswing doesnāt seem too exciting. Itās worth noting that upswings never do feel exciting until the wall of worry has been climbed. Still, itās difficult to see how we get an acceleration in growth rates without inflation. The most optimistic actors seem to be focused on just trying to control what can be controlled.
The Macro Outlook:
Companies continue to find ways to be pleased with relatively anemic growth
āIn our domestic segment, revenue increased a greater than expected 0.1%ā¦driven by comparable sales of 0.8%ā¦As it relates toā¦our expectations, maybe our expectations were too low. But the other thing is that frankly our team is executing extremely well.ā āBest Buy (Consumer Electronics)
CEOs are trying to stay optimistic that good execution can carry the day in a tough environment
āThe consumer is going through a period around the world of uncertaintyā¦but ultimately at the end of the day if we can deliver a better experience day in and day out in our restaurants, weāre confident we can win that market share fight.ā āMcDonaldās CEO Steve Easterbrook (Fast Food)
āthe retail environment has softened since we last talked, and our sales are being impacted by a more cautious consumerā¦As always, our focus is on what we can control, which includes our supply chain and inventory initiativesā¦ā āWilliams Sonoma CEO Laura Alber (Home Goods)
āI think weāre going to be in a more moderate growth world for a long time and a low ā lower interest rate environment for a long time, but I still think that youāll be able to ā good investors will still be able to make a lot of money.ā āBrookfield Asset Management CEO Bruce Flatt (Asset Management)
Sentiment can swing rapidly when your baseline growth is close to zero
āthe early part of the [fiscal] third quarter where sentiment was a bit more positive as those commodity prices were upā¦that can change in a hurry, and it certainly with the commodity prices coming down, I think itās fair to say the overall mood would be less positive than it was a couple months ago even.ā āJohn Deere (Farm Equipment)
There continues to be a glut of inventory in a number of capital goods industries
āthere continues to be a glut of trucks entering the market. And so itās been transportation, construction, and weāre still seeing a decline of pricing on oil and gas related equipment. And also anything tied to mining as wellā āRitchie Bros Auctioneers SVP Doug Olive (Used Industrial Equipment)
Retailers are carrying less inventory but they may still be carrying too much
āI still believe that even with less inventory, thereās so many uncertain factors out there, the macroeconomic environment, political environment, even though stores are positioned perhaps with less inventory than they have last year, that doesnāt necessarily mean that, that sales will materializeā āRoss Stores CEO Barbara Rentler (Off Price Retail)
There are shortages developing in some parts of the technology supply chain though
āwe are seeing on the horizon some shortages, particularly around LCDs, DRAM and Flash memory. And itās not so much coming from the PC industry. Itās more coming from adjacent categories going to ā glass going into televisions, memory going into phones that are likely to double density, which is putting pressure on the overall industry.ā āHP Inc. CEO Dion Weisler (Printers)
Wages also continue to rise
āI think weāve done a good job so far as Michael Hartshorn said in absorbing those wage rate increases in the last couple of years. But thatās probably a limit to how much we can absorb. ā āRoss Stores President Michael OāSullivan (Off Price Retail)
Shortages and wage increases can lead to higher inflation. The Fed is signalling that it is closer to making a move
ā Employment has increased impressively over the past six years since its low point in early 2010ā¦core PCE inflation, at 1.6 percent, is within hailing distance of 2 percentāand the core consumer price index inflation rate is currently above 2 percent. So we are close to our targets.ā āFederal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer (Central Bank)
International:
The British economy appears to have emerged from the Brexit vote unscathed
āwe havenāt seen a Brexit effect at this point in time. It doesnāt mean something couldnāt come down the road, but we havenāt seen that at this point.ā āNordson CEO Michael Hilton (Industrial Components)
Europe seems very healthy to PVH
āEurope seems much healthier as a market to us. I know all the headlines about Europe and what you see. But as far as the consumers being ā spending discretionary money, itās very healthy there.ā āPVH CEO Manny Chirico (Apparel)
There may have even been a bit of a boost
āinterestingly we saw an uptrend in the UK sales almost immediately following the vote. We believe that the weakening of the pound has made London a more attractive tourist shopping destination.ā āTiffany IR Mark Aaron (Jewelry)
Itās really too early to tell though
āwe saw very, very limited impact from Brexitā¦.so, Q3 was really a non-event. On a go-forward basis, itās unclear exactly what the impact is going to be. We are definitely seeing and, in some cases, following with our own pricing increases. Whatās less clear isā¦what is going to be the impact on demandā¦And itās just too early to tell.ā āHP Inc. CFO Cathie Lesjak (Printers)
Canadian regulators are taking a closer look at home price appreciation
āRegulatory bodies are also responding to the combination of rising house prices and record levels of consumer leverage. We support the Canadian federal governmentās recent action to form a working group to study the housing market and develop appropriate recommendations.ā āRoyal Bank of Canada CEO David McKay (Bank)
The impact of currency fluctuations on financial results are starting to balance out
āThere was no translation effect on total sales as the stronger yen offset the negative translation effects from the stronger US dollar against other currencies.ā āTiffany IR Mark Aaron (Jewelry)
Financials:
The financial industry is being very cautious with capital spending
ādiscretionary spending in the banking sector remained soft, weighed down by macroeconomic concerns and a prolonged low interest rate environmentā¦We see the banking sector being more cautious in spending over the near-term.ā āCognizant Technology Solutions (IT Consulting)
Consumer:
There may be some weakness in the high end consumer
āThereās obviously some strength out there in different parts of retail. In apparel specifically, the environment remains challenging, and quite frankly, it remains most challenging in the higher end of the market.ā āGap CEO Arthur Peck (Apparel)
āWe can only speculate on why domestic US consumer spending at the high end has been generally soft, but we believe that macro market and political uncertainties are likely playing a role in restrained consumer behavior.ā āTiffany IR Mark Aaron (Breakfast)
If there is weakness at the high end, Toll Brothers isnāt seeing it though
ā While there has been a lot of discussion about weakness in the luxury new home market, we just arenāt seeing it based on this quarters contract growth across all of our regionsā āToll Brothers CEO Douglas Yearley (Homebuilder)
The retail landscape continues to be very promotional
āwhen the industryās on sale 365 days a year, when thereās free delivery, when thereās 70% off merchandise, I donāt think the promotional activity can get much stronger.ā āLa-Z-Boy CEO Kurt Darrow (Home Goods)
More athletic apparel is sold for fashion than function
āthe facts are that most of the basketball shoes that we sell never see a basketball court, most of the running shoes that we sell never see the roads or the trails of the track to run in, they just look really good and they are part of the sneaker culture that we really supportā āFoot Locker CEO Richard Johnson (Apparel)
PVH believes that it is close to profitable scale in e-commerce
āAnd I think from a pure profitability point of view, the only issue weāre dealing with on our own e-commerce sites is scale. As that business continues to growā¦weāre 12 months away from going from a loss position on those businesses to a profit position on those businessesā¦we truly are becoming agnostic about where the customer shops.ā āPVH CEO Manny Chirico (Apparel)
Priceline likes Facebook
āI think we would like to spend more money on Facebook going forward. We have a good relationship with them, and weāve found that a number of things that weāve done on Facebook works well, particularly retargeting, which really is more of a performance-based analysis the way we look at it. So, I would look for us to be doing more. As you could see by Facebookās announcement, the scale of their advertising business is growing, and while it traditionally has been more of a brand advertising platform, we like to work closely with Facebook to find ways to make more performance-oriented placements work for us. ā āPriceline CEO Jeff Boyd (Travel Agency)
Technology:
Small businesses have been slow to move their accounting software to the cloud
āwe have done work with our customer base in the desktop to figure out why they arenāt interested in the cloud. And reasons one through five are all basically, I am not ready to move to the cloud. I donāt want to put my data in the cloud. I donāt want to move to a subscription service. My current product is working just fine. My accountant is working with me and they have got a desktop version.ā āIntuit CEO Brad Smith (Accounting Software)
Materials, Energy:
Banks feel confident that any issues caused by $35-$40 oil are now well known and behind them
āwe are well past the stress test days and we actually know every part of our portfolio and see how it performs in a low oil price environmentā¦I think a lot of the issues that the $35-$40 oil would have indicated are behind us. But it also depends on how long the prices remain depressed.ā āBank of Montreal CRO Surjit Rajpal (Bank)
There are no new coal mines being built around the world
āthe big thing we got to look at in coal is no new supply in the world which is a very important issue. You donāt see anyone building new mines or increasing production of minesā¦So a significant decrease coming down from Indonesia, no new supply from Australia, from Colombia, South Africa, et cetera, thatās all relatively stable and no new big mines being built anywhere in the world.ā āGlencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg (Metals and Mining)
Full transcripts can be found at www.seekingalpha.com
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