Stock Market Control
by William Smead, Smead Capital Management
We saw the chart below in a recent Marketwatch.com column from Mark Hulbert. It shows the likelihood of the stock market going up or down in the next year, based on how it did the prior year:
This got us thinking about what you can and can’t control in the U.S. stock market. After all, the reason that stocks outperform other liquid asset classes over long stretches of time is the uncertainty and variability of returns. Here is a short list of things which can’t be controlled in the U.S. stock market:
1. Stock market results
The chart shows that there is a one in three chance that stocks will drop each year regardless of whatever happened the prior year. We don’t think investors should buy or own common stocks if they feel emotionally ill-equipped to withstand a losing year.
2. Stock Market Volatility
Even in good years, stocks can swing wildly from week to week and month to month. The average year sees a peak to trough decline of 10%, and we have seen a 20% or greater decline about once every five years on average. Twice in the last 16 years we saw the S&P 500 Index decline by more than 30%. Granted, that is an unusual occurrence, since there have been only five such declines since 1940. We remember telling common stock investors near the bottom of the stock market in March of 2009 that it would likely take about four years to get their portfolio value back to where it was before the decline in 2008-09. Those courageous and patient investors have been well rewarded by the bull market since then.
An owner of common stocks should expect gyrations as part of the price of admission and use holding periods which allow for recovery and success. The wise investor seeks to use wide, sharp and emotional price swings in their favor.
3. Stock Market Unpredictability
I am approaching my 36th year participating in the U.S. stock market and can say that nobody has proven any consistent ability to predict price moves in the indexes. I’ve read the prognostications of Joe Granville, Stan Weinstein, Marty Zweig, Comstock Partners, Robert Prechter, George Gilder, Nouriel Roubini, Meredith Whitney and numerous other very smart people in my career. The one thing they have in common is they attracted a large following after being very right on a major stock market prediction. However, doing so consistently is a bit like trying to find the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.