by Eric Bush, CFA, Gavekal Capital
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a 0.8% MoM gained in June and is 5.1% higher YoY%. Prices in all 20 cities in the index are higher on a 1-month, 3-month, and 12-month basis.
Importantly, the number of cities that are surpassing previous higher watermarks is increasing. About a year ago, only three cities were above its pre-financial crisis high. As of June 2016, seven cities have surpassed previous peak prices.
Denver real estate, where our office is located, continues to be on a tear higher. Denver home prices according to S&P/Case-Shiller are nearly 30% above 2006 highs. Dallas housing prices are there as well as they have gained nearly 28%. House prices in Portland, San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, and Boston are all at least 2.5% higher than previous highs. San Francisco has made the biggest rebound from trough housing prices. House prices in San Francisco are 94% higher than they were on March 2009. NYC has seen the worst recovery from the housing crisis lows. NYC house prices are just 16% higher than they were on March 2012. Cleveland has had the second worst recovery as home prices there have only gained by 19% since February 2002. Prices in the other 18 cities have all recovered by at 30% from financial crisis lows.
