Pre-opening Comments for Monday August 11th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 11 points in pre-opening trade.
Pepsico added $0.71 to $91.00 after UBS upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.
Tesla Motors gained $7.07 to $255.20 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
Wal-Mart fell $0.47 to $74.20 after Jefferies downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. Target is $76.
EquityClock.comâs Daily Market Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2014/08/10/stock-market-outlook-for-august-11-2014/
Mark Leibovitâs Comments on Gold and Silver
Following is a link:
Economic News This Week
Canadian July Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday are expected to dip to 193,000 from 198,300 in June.
July Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in June. Excluding auto sales, July retail sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in June.
June Business Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.5% in May.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 295,000 from 289,000 last week.
July Producer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in June. Excluding food and energy, July Producer Prices are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in June.
August Empire State Manufacturing Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 20.0 from 25.6 in July.
July Industrial Production to be released at 9:15 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in June. July Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 79.2% from 79.1% in June.
August Michigan Sentiment Index to be released at 9:55 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 82.5 from 81.8 in July.
Earnings News This Week
Equity Trends
Summary of Weekly Seasonal/Technical Parameters for Equity Indices/ETFs
Key:
Seasonal: Positive, Negative or Neutral on a relative basis applying EquityClock.com charts
Trend: Up, Down or Neutral
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive, Negative or Neutral
Momentum based on an average of Stochastics, RSI and MACD: Up, Down or Mixed
Twenty Day Moving Average: Above, Below
Green: Upgrade
Red: Downgrade
The S&P 500 Index added 6.44 points (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and are oversold.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average improved to 35.49% after reaching a 21 month low at 23.00% on Thursday. Historically, a bounce from below the 25% level has proven to be an intermediate low for the S&P 500 Index. Itâs too early to make that call, but data confirms that Percent is deeply oversold.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 72.20% from 68.20%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks fell to 70.60% from 73.80% and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week to 81.15% from 80.33% and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
The TSX Composite Index dropped 18.95 points (0.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 1.0). The Index remains below its 20 day moving average (Score: 1.0). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive (Score: 1.0). Technical score remains at 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average slipped last week to 51.85% from 52.26%. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 75.31% from 73.66%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 60.56 points (0.37%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and are oversold.
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks fell last week to 80.00% from 86.67%.and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks slipped last week to 53.90% from 55.14% and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
The NASDAQ Composite Index added 18.26 points (0.42%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Russell 2000 Index gained 24.04 points (2.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from negative. Technical score improved to 1.0 from 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped 28.39 points (0.35%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from up on a move below 7,960.47. The Average remains below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score slipped to 1.0 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and are oversold.
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index fell 118.00 points (2.13%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index fell below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Technical score fell to 1.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Nikkei Average plunged 744.74 points (4.80%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from up on a move below 15,110.45 and 14,830.99. The Average fell below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative to positive. Technical score fell to 0.0 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Europe 350 iShares fell another $0.53 (1.15%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0.
The Shanghai Composite Index added 9.12 points (0.42%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
iShares Emerging Markets fell $0.37 (0.84%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Technical score slipped to 1.5 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar Index added 0.03 (0.04%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
The Euro slipped 0.13 (0.10%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Euro remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.
The Canadian Dollar fell US 0.46 cents (0.50%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from up on a move below 91.24. The Canuck Buck remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.
The Japanese Yen added 0.50 (0.51%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Yen remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels.
Commodities
The CRB Index slipped 0.05 (0.02%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.
Gasoline added $0.01 per gallon (0.03%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Gasoline remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 0.5 from 0.0 out of 3.0.
Crude Oil slipped $0.23 per barrel (0.23%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Crude remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.
Natural Gas gained $0.15 per MBtu (3.95%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral on a move above $3.91. âGattyâ moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Technical score increased to 2.5 from 2.5 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
The S&P Energy Index added 5.63 points (0.81%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0.
The Philadelphia Oil Services Index added 1.82 points (0.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.
Gold added $16.20 per ounce (1.25%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Gold moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Silver fell $0.43 per ounce (2.11%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Silver remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score remains at 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and are oversold. Strength relative to Gold remains negative.
The AMEX Gold Bug Index added 5.45 points (2.30%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Platinum added $15.00 per ounce (1.03%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. PLAT remains below its 20 day MA. Strength relative to S&P 500 turned positive.
Palladium gained $4.05 per ounce (0.47%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. PALL remains below its 20 day MA. Strength relative to S&P 500 and Gold remains neutral.
Copper fell $0.04 per lb. (1.25%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from up to down on a move below $3.17. Copper remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. Technical score fell to 0.5 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The TSX Metals & Mining Index fell 15.57 points (1.69%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from positive to neutral. Technical score slipped to 1.5 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Lumber added $20.80 (6.42%) last week. Trend changed to up from down on a move above $342.00. Lumber moved above its 20 day MA. Strength relative to S&P turned positive.
The Grain ETN added $0.54 (1.41%) last week. Trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.
The Agriculture ETF added $0.29 (1.41%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from negative to positive. Technical score improved to 1.0 from 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and showing signs of bottoming.
Interest Rates
The yield on 10 year Treasuries fell 9 basis points (0.84%) last week. Trend changed to up from neutral on a move below 2.402%. Yield remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF added $0.96 (0.84%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average.
Other Issues
The VIX Index fell 1.26 (7.40%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving average. Despite the decline, VIX remains elevated relative to levels reached two months ago.
Economic news this week is expected to confirm slow, but steady growth in the U.S.
The focus for second quarter reports this week is on the retail merchandising sector.
Short and intermediate technical indicators for most North American equity indices and sectors are oversold. Some has started to show early signs of bottoming.
Seasonal influences for world equity markets and economic sensitive sectors are negative between now and October. An important exception is the precious metals sector.
International events will continue to impact equity markets one way or the other. Conflicts in Palestine, Iraq, Ukraine and Libya remain a focus. Economic concerns about Europe continue to escalate. Greeceâs ETF fell another 4.0% on Friday.
The Bottom Line
Now is the time to watch for possible seasonal entry points in sectors that are oversold and /or gaining momentum. Precious metals clearly are a focus, but others are possible at this time of year including Fertilizer, Natural Gas, Biotech and Uranium.
StockTwits Released During Trading on Friday
Nice breakout by $SLW above $29.50 Cdn. to an 8 month high. âTis the seaon for SLW and precious metals!
Seasonal influences for $SLW are positive until the end of September.
Nice breakout by $ABX above resistance at $20.78 Cdn. A break above $20.91 completes a reverse Head & Shoulders.
Editorâs Note: Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock on Friday to Conviction Buy.
Quiet technical action by S&P stocks to 11:00. One stock broke resistance ($COH) and 3 stocks broke support ($NWSA, $CSC, $DAL).
Technical Action by Individual Equities on Friday
By the close, two more S&P 500 stocks broke resistance: Home Depot and TJX Companies
No TSX 60 stocks broke intermediate resistance or support.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
Monitored Technical/Seasonal Trade Ideas
A security must have a Technical Score of 1.5 â 3.0 to be on this list.
Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc.
Individual equities mentioned in StockTwits are not held personally or in HAC.
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC August 8th 2014
