Markets in April might have treaded water, but behind the flat returns lies a storm of geopolitical, economic, and technological currents. In his latest North American Equity update1, Peter Hofstra, SVP and Co-Head of Equities – Research at CI Global Asset Management, offers a sweeping overview of what he calls an “orange wrecking ball” moment in policy and market behavior—one driven by the returning Trump administration, surging AI investment, and tectonic shifts in trade dynamics.
“Flat Markets, Fast Politics”: April in Review
“Should we call it Trump time?” Hofstra begins, capturing the chaotic pace of the month. “When a month seems to last forever… we saw everything in the month of April and ended up almost flat, frankly, both in Canada and the US with regard to equity markets.”
The political volatility is front and center. “We did think the Trump administration would come out fast and furious, which is certainly true,” he says, describing a strategic blitz of policy implementation aimed at shoring up Republican gains ahead of midterms. The flurry of activity, he adds, has had meaningful—if erratic—impacts on trade and investor sentiment.
“Where Do You Ship To?”: Trade War Impasse with China
While headlines suggest efforts to de-escalate, Hofstra paints a murkier picture: “It hasn’t happened yet.” Ongoing trade tensions with China have disrupted manufacturing and shipping logistics, forcing multinational companies into a state of limbo. “It is trying to find other customers,” Hofstra notes, pointing to the struggles of Chinese exporters.
More critically, the pain could circle back to U.S. consumers. “Christmas toys won’t be available,” he warns, suggesting that the low-cost goods pipeline—critical to Trump’s base of Walmart shoppers—is under serious threat.
Even more structurally concerning is what this could mean for the U.S. dollar. “The US dollar has been on the decline as a percent of foreign reserves… over 70 at the turn of the century, now below 60.” As Hofstra notes, Treasury markets were recently “rattled” by a selloff—possibly triggered by highly-levered hedge fund positions, but also indicative of weakening confidence in U.S. debt.
While there’s “a lot of unpacking” still to do, Hofstra leaves little doubt that long-term cracks are forming in the global trade and currency architecture.
“Spending on AI Has Remained Incredibly Robust”
If there’s a bright spot in this volatile mix, it’s artificial intelligence. Hofstra reinforces CI GAM’s core thesis: “One of the themes we have been big believers [in] is obviously spending on artificial intelligence, and that does look like it’s remained incredibly robust.”
He highlights Microsoft as a prime example: “They’re not just spending a lot; they’re making money on what they’re spending.” The same goes for Meta and Alphabet—clear validation of AI’s monetization potential.
Even in geopolitics, AI is pushing boundaries. “They’re using AI to help with the peace negotiations with Russia and Israel,” Hofstra reveals, referencing virtual simulations that use personas like “a virtual Putin” to test negotiation strategies. Underpinning this revolution are foundational models like Llama, which he cites as part of a “vast treasure trove of data” being turned into powerful applications.
“Congratulations Canadians… Let’s Be Optimistic”
Turning north, Hofstra marks the historic shift in Canada’s leadership. “Congratulations Canadians, you have a new prime minister,” he says, referencing former central banker Mark Carney. Hofstra avoids partisan analysis but observes that voters sent a clear signal: “We want something centrist, we want to get something done, and we want to be slightly right-leaning right now.”
He outlines what’s now expected from Carney: “Let’s get our precious resources to market. Let’s get our productivity higher. Let’s get our cost of living more manageable.” The message is hopeful but cautious, emphasizing pragmatism and unity across Canada’s east-west divide.
Buffett’s Exit, Cautious Optimism, and… Go Leafs Go?
In a lighter moment, Hofstra celebrates the end of an era: “Let’s give a quick shout out to Warren Buffett. He is going to retire at 94 years old… But he will stay on as chairman.” The news, announced during Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting, marks a transition for one of investing’s greatest icons.
As for markets, Hofstra sums up his current stance with tempered hope: “Yeah, maybe the worst is behind us. We said we were cautiously opportunistic through the worst of it.” His message to investors? Keep one eye on long-term structural shifts—AI, currency dominance, trade realignments—and the other on tactical positioning amid ongoing volatility.
And before signing off, he can’t help but toss in a bit of hometown pride: “Go Leafs go. Can we do that?”
Takeaway
Hofstra’s latest update serves as a timely compass for navigating a market roiled by political unpredictability, structural global shifts, and technological disruption. His underlying message is clear: while headlines may jar and politics may polarize, secular tailwinds like AI and pragmatic leadership at home could offer rare opportunities for patient, selective investors.
Footnote:
1 "North American Equities: Trump Time? | CI Global Asset Management." CI Global Asset Management, 15 May. 2025.
