Today we will review the relative strength decline of another behemoth, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), which has now sunk deep down the SIA S&P 100 Index Report, along with many other SIA reports that it is a constituent of, putting SIA practitioners on guard. While the share price has taken a hit in 2025, it's the relative decline that has SIA on alert, as this is the main focus for ensuring that investments held in portfolios are always relative outperformers. Given the desire for beating the benchmarks, this form of comparative analysis is an excellent way to operate in a rules-based, methodological way. The first chart presented shows the history of MSFT's position within the SIA S&P 100 Index Report, where we see the decline in relative strength (RS) back in August of 2024. While they attempted a relative strength rally in late 2024, they have again faltered and sunk to the lowest level within the report since January 2023. The next chart presented is the 2% scaled point and figure chart, which illustrates the relative strength movements on top of the actual share price. Here, we find that after a significant rally while in the favored green zone, shares did eventually find resistance at $468.78, and the battle between sellers and buyers began. Shares are now trading between this upper resistance and the current level, with the upper green line at $384.55 marking the lower trading band. Should this level become penetrated, support may manifest at $348.30, along with even longer-term support dating to 2022 at $328.21. To the upside, near-term resistance is viable at the $424.57 and $433.06 levels.
The second chart presented is the shorter-term weekly candlestick chart, zooming in on the trading action to illustrate the series of declining tops over the past several quarters. While support has held, there are SIA red flags in the technical attributes as the company's stock price flirts with important support at the $385 level, potentially making it a critical holding point for any recovery in prices. Here again, we have highlighted the two levels of near-term resistance around the $400 mark, which also coincides with psychological levels that can sometimes be sticking points for stock market operators. This is all against the backdrop of a declining SIA SMAX score, which is another near-term measure of relative strength against a basket of alternative asset classes, proving yet another vector of negative RS against MSFT.
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