On July 31, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 0.25%, up from 0%, aiming to curb the yen's sharp decline against the U.S. dollar. This move strengthened the yen, which had dropped to around 160 yen per dollar, a concern for Japan given its reliance on imports like oil and food. Just four months earlier, Japan had raised rates above zero for the first time in 17 years. In August, Japan's stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Nikkei 225 index plunging 12.4%, marking its largest one-day percentage loss since 1987. This triggered a global market rout, causing major losses worldwide, though the impact was short-lived. Amid turmoil in South Korea, money flows appear to be shifting, potentially favoring Japan. These developments are particularly relevant to the Japanese carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding, appreciating assets abroad, such as the U.S. dollar. While the carry trade can be profitable due to the interest rate differential, it carries risks like currency fluctuations, rising interest rates, and global market volatility, which could lead to significant losses if conditions change. Currently, these risks seem muted as Japan-focused ETFs are experiencing strong point-and-figure breakouts. However, many of these positions remain in the neutral zone according to SIA reports, particularly the SIA All CAD ETF Report, which tracks 859 unleveraged Canadian ETFs daily, helping identify assets and sectors gaining momentum.
Following the market pullback this summer, advisors are closely monitoring both emerging and developed markets. The BMO Japan ETF (ZJPN) stands out, moving up 23 positions in the past week and 40 positions over the past month. This is in stark contrast to the 77-position drop in the last quarter, as reflected in the SIA All CAD Report. A technical analysis of the BMO Japan Index ETF shows that while the unit’s relative strength declined after August’s flash crash, it never entered the SIA "unfavored" red zone. Meanwhile, the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair shows a positive trend, with a price discovery triangle forming, typically resolving in the direction of the trend. The SMAX score of the US Dollar/Japanese Yen, a near-term indicator that compares relative strength across asset classes, turned red during the crash but has since switched back to green as can be seen in the first chart, signaling resilient market conditions. Finally, this point-and-figure chart for BMO Japan ETF shows a strong breakout with multiple double tops, signaling potential continued strength, particularly as the broader market watches for further developments amid the instability in South Korea.
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