by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
HUBRIS, THE FATAL FLAW IN WASHINGTON:Ā Donald Trump did not learn any lessons or changeĀ his ways after acquittal, as Sen. Susan Collins ludicrously predicted. Instead, Trump has horrified even his supporters in this city with behavior that reinforces our belief thatĀ heās not a shoo-in for re-election, as the financial markets expect.
TRUMP OBVIOUSLY THOUGHTĀ he could do whatever he wanted after dodging his removal fromĀ office, but his recklessness in the past few weeks has generated intense push-back:
His bipartisan defeat yesterday in the Senate on his ability to strike Iran;
A smackdown from Attorney General William Barr over Trumpās interferenceĀ in the JusticeĀ Department;
A chilling new brawl with New York state, which Trump wants to punish for investigatingĀ him;
A potential defeat from the Senate on the nomination of Judy Shelton to become a
Fed Governor; sheās on very thin ice.
TRUMP IS STILL THE SHAKY NOVEMBER FAVORITE,Ā but as we wrote last Friday, heās vulnerable onĀ a wide range of issues and faces overwhelming opposition from college educated women,Ā young people, suburbanites and ā especially ā African Americans and Hispanics. WeāreĀ confident that he wonāt get 304 electoral votes, as he did in 2016; he needs 270 andĀ would be lucky to get 290.
WHY ARE WE BUCKING THE āTRUMP LANDSLIDEā THEME?Ā Our sense is that the public is wearyĀ of the un-ending feuds and tweets.Ā Canāt this guy get along with anyone?Ā VirtuallyĀ everyone who previously worked in his White House is prepared to eviscerate him asĀ unstable and dangerous ā and itās pretty difficult to tweet that Gen. John Kelly or JohnĀ Bolton have sinister motives.
THE GREAT WILD CARD:Ā Can the Democrats patch up gaping wounds this summer and uniteĀ behind a candidate who can beat Trump? We once thought Joe Biden had a path to 270 votes,Ā but he simply lacks the energy. Bernie Sanders could lose 40 states. Pete ButtigiegĀ isnāt quite ready. Amy Klobuchar still doesnāt have widespread recognition.
MIKE BLOOMBERG IS STARTING TO LOOKĀ like the best bet to defeat Trump. Bloomberg hitsĀ back hard, with scathing and witty tweets, while the best Trump can do is mock BloombergāsĀ height. Like every other candidate, Bloomberg has flaws, but his endorsement this weekĀ by several respected black leaders is a sign that they put winning ahead of āstop andĀ frisk.ā
OUT BOTTOM LINEĀ is that Trump simply canāt let well enough alone; he won acquittal andĀ the economy is good (but not great). Yet Trump is addicted to headlines and controversy,Ā so he rises to the bait, tweeting furiously on minor issues from critics who should beĀ ignored. He couldnāt even resist a fight with a 17-year-old girl on climate change.
TRUMP IS HIS OWN WORST ENEMY,Ā as the Wall Street Journal editorialized this morning, andĀ we reiterate āĀ itās way, way too premature to expect him to win a second term.Ā
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
