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A deep-dive into capital cycles, market manias, and why the next decade of returns may belong outside the crowded U.S. trade, and in one of the perhaps most surprising places— the Canadian Oil Patch.
From AI-driven CapEx booms to the hidden risks of passive investing, Smead draws on historical parallels—from railroads to telecom to fracking—to explain why investors often miss the biggest regime shifts… and why the next decade of returns may look very different from the last.
This conversation explores the case for international equities, the structural setup for commodities, and why Canadian oil could play a critical role in portfolios as capital flows begin to rebalance globally.
If you think diversification still means owning the S&P 500… this episode may change your perspective.
What You’ll Learn:
• Why U.S. equity dominance may be nearing an inflection point
• How capital cycles—not narratives—drive long-term returns
• The hidden risks inside passive indexing and concentrated markets
• Why AI and massive CapEx may not benefit investors the way you expect
• The emerging opportunity in international equities and Canadian energy
⏱️ Chapters:
00:00 – The problem with U.S. market concentration
01:00 – Capital cycles vs valuation cycles
03:00 – Lessons from past market manias
05:00 – Why investors often lose in innovation booms
07:00 – Passive investing under pressure
10:00 – Oil markets and historical analogies
13:00 – Behavioral investing mistakes
18:00 – The SaaS reset and return on capital
24:00 – Investment discipline and opportunity
28:00 – Great companies vs great stocks
30:00 – AI CapEx and unintended consequences
34:00 – Who really benefits from innovation cycles
37:00 – Telecom bust lessons for today
40:00 – Falling tech costs and the Jevons Paradox
44:00 – Global capital rotation begins?
48:00 – Index risks and market dispersion
51:00 – Commodities and the U.S. dollar outlook
56:00 – From “mythos” to “logos” in investing
About the Guest:
Cole Smead is CEO and Portfolio Manager at Smead Capital Management, known for his long-term, contrarian approach to value investing and deep research into market cycles and investor behavior.
About the Show:
Insight is Capital™ explores the ideas, strategies, and perspectives shaping the future of investing—helping advisors and investors think better before capital compounds.
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