The Small-Cap Breakout Trade No One’s Talking About: PriceSmart Leads the Pack

by SIACharts.com

Before we introduce PriceSmart (PSMT), the focus of today’s Daily Stock Report, let’s first examine the technical picture of the small-cap S&P 600 Index, of which PriceSmart is a constituent. Here, we use the S&P 600 proxy ETF, SPSM, from State Street’s SPDR Portfolio. Over the past several years, mega-cap stocks have dominated investor attention, while small caps have largely taken a back seat. Recently, however, SPSM is approaching a potential breakout on the attached 2% scaled point and figure chart, which is interesting to say the least.

Resistance appears just above the current level at $49.08, with shares currently at $48.17, where a move could produce a spread double top, signaling a potential resolution between supply and demand and worth setting a SIA price alert. Beyond this, long-term resistance sits near $61.03, representing a significant potential move for small caps. Support is visible at $43.58, with an additional zone between $39.47 and $37.20, coinciding with the positive trend line.

In preparation for any material breakout in small caps, we scanned the point and figure charts of all 600 S&P 600 companies. Several names are already breaking past similar resistance levels, with notable high-relative-strength performers including Century Aluminum (CENX), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), Mercury Systems (MRCY), Core Laboratories (CLB), and Granite Construction (GVA).

Against this backdrop of potential small-cap momentum, PriceSmart (PSMT) stands out as a company to watch. PriceSmart Inc. is a membership-based warehouse club retailer headquartered in San Diego, California, operating a business model similar to Costco but entirely outside the United States. Founded in 1976, the company sells a broad range of merchandise—including food, consumer staples, fresh produce, electronics, and household goods—primarily in bulk at discounted prices, with membership fees providing a stable source of income.

PriceSmart operates warehouse clubs across Latin America and the Caribbean, including Central America (Costa Rica, Panama, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua), the Caribbean (Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Barbados, and the U.S. Virgin Islands), and South America, mainly Colombia, with recent expansion into Chile. Its stock trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker PSMT and is included in small-cap indexes such as the S&P SmallCap 600 and the Russell 2000, reflecting its market capitalization of approximately $4 billion USD.

The attached SIA point-and-figure chart of PriceSmart (PSMT) is scaled at 2% for an investment-grade technical analysis of its price action. Unlike the broader S&P 600 Index, which is still testing resistance, PSMT has already cleared the $96.30 level through mid-2025 and subsequently rallied to a 52-week high of $131.46 in December. The company is part of the SIA-favored Retail Sector and carries a SMAX score of 8 out of 10, highlighting its strong relative strength against other asset classes. Compared with the 600 names in the S&P 600 Index, this report places it in the favored zone at spot #96.

Using point-and-figure vertical counting methodology based on prior consolidation zones, potential resistance levels are identified at $145.96 and $167.66, while near-term support may emerge around the 3-box reversal levels of $119.74 and $110.62. A light green zone near the positive trend line from $94.41–$82.19 represents important long-term support. For those combining technical analysis with fundamental review, the chart also appears to form a potential cup-and-handle pattern, a classic marker from William O’Neil’s CANSLIM methodology.

Disclaimer: SIACharts Inc. specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investors investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIACharts Inc. nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

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