In our last report on August 14, 2024, we highlighted JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM), which at the time exhibited notable relative strength compared to the broader U.S. market. At that point, JPM was deeply entrenched in the green favoured zone of the SIA S&P 100 Report. Today, the stock still occupies the favoured zone in the report at the #17 position out of 103 spots. Since our last commentary in August of 2024, the shares did dip briefly to the top of the yellow neutral zone, still indicating overall resilience compared to the broader S&P 100 Index. Today, the shares are at $300.51. At the time of our last commentary, the shares were at $207.94, representing a 44% price increase since then for those advisors who wished to hold the name while it resided in the green and yellow neutral zones of the report, since the shares never fell into the red unfavoured zone. This approach can be practical for advisors who prefer a less tactical strategy of staying away from unfavoured names while holding favoured and neutral names to limit portfolio turnover. Currently, the shares are up 1 spot in the month, with returns of 25.85% in the last year, while the S&P 100 Index is up 16.77% in the last year. This exemplifies the strength of SIA’s prominent methodology of staying in stronger names whenever possible while avoiding laggards, which typically reside in the red unfavoured zone.
Turning to the candlestick chart and a daily view of the past six months, the trend shows higher highs with a previous high in the second week of November at a peak of $320.00. A swift pullback followed, drifting the shares back to support at approximately the $295 area last month. Importantly, this $295 level held the same price point reached in the third week of October, keeping the uptrend intact. The shares are now entering a key inflection point as they attempt to re-assert themselves toward the recent peak of $320 from earlier in November. The $320 price level will be important to watch as this is near term resistance. If the shares break above that level, the current uptrend remains intact. However, yesterday’s price action pulled the shares down to $300 very quickly, almost touching the $295 support zone the shares have tested twice in the last 2 months. JPM shares are currently in a standstill until either $320 to the upside or $295 to the downside breaks. It remains to be seen which direction the trend resolves in.
Since the shares are at a pivotal point in the chart trend, we look at the Point and Figure (P&F) chart at a 1% scale to help identify specific support and resistance levels. After a massive rebound in May and June with a column of X’s lasting 34 boxes, we see an orderly pattern of higher highs and higher lows from July to November. There is near term resistance at $316.94. Should the shares break above this near term level, next resistance is at $323.31. This is a key price point to monitor. If the shares break above this level, a higher high may be confirmed with next resistance at $336.44. To the downside, support is at $295.61, which is close to the $300 round number, and below that, support sits at $281.27. JP Morgan has a bullish Double Top Pattern and currently holds a SMAX score of 9 out of 10, reflecting strong short term performance compared to other asset classes, even during market volatility.
JPMorgan Chase is one of the largest and most complex financial institutions in the United States, with nearly $4 trillion in assets. It is organised into four major segments consumer and community banking, corporate and investment banking, commercial banking, and asset and wealth management. JPMorgan operates and is subject to regulation in multiple countries.
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