Over the past several weeks, crosscurrents in the market have been clouding the waters for forecasters. Volatility readings have pulsed higher, sector rotation has intensified, and investor flows have increasingly moved toward classic safe-harbor areas such as Utilities, Real Estate, and Pharmaceuticals. At the same time, more aggressive groups, particularly Technology (including both Software and Hardware), have taken the brunt of the pressure. Yet, when advisors notice Transportation climbing the rankings again, many are reminded of the sage observations of Charles Dow and the principles behind the Dow Theory. If the market were preparing to roll into a corrective phase or something more severe, transportation trends can be an important barometer. The SIA Matrix highlights this, as the Transport group’s rise from the SIA Unfavored Zone into the Neutral Zone shows a marked improvement in its relative strength.
The Dow Theory teaches that broader market direction can be inferred by examining the interplay between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), watching for confirmation as both averages move together. Dow’s framework maps out the phases of bull and bear markets and stresses that trend changes require directional confirmation from both indices, not just one in isolation. Trends remain dominant until clearly reversed through identifiable shifts in peaks and troughs. Given that Charles Dow was a pioneer of point-and-figure charting, which uses price movements to trace trend structure, SIA is well positioned to illustrate this dual-index relationship.
For many investors, the last true bear market feels distant, and for others, it is something they would rather forget. Yet point-and-figure charts for both the DJIA and DJTA clearly show that major drawdown. From there, the green trend line marks the supportive backbone of the subsequent bull market, with the pullbacks in 2020, 2022, and early 2025 appearing only as corrective pauses. Earlier this year, the DJIA posted a double bottom, raising concern as the index had drifted far above its major trend line. The Transports mirrored this weakness. The Industrials then surged again, printing a triple-top breakout that returned control to the buyers. The Transports, on the other hand, only recently began to participate and remain below their prior highs, with the last point-and-figure signal still a triple bottom. Until the DJTA can reclaim those old highs, we continue to watch for further bullish confirmation.
Breaking the Transportation sector into its component groups reveals a mixed landscape. Rails and trucks continue to lag, while airlines and especially marine shipping have shown stronger relative strength. Yet the strength in shipping comes with its own crosscurrents. Rising war-risk premiums and escalating global tensions have sent shipping prices sharply higher, raising the question of whether this reflects true demand-driven growth or merely price inflation that could ultimately stifle demand.
These concerns intensified after explosions struck the tanker Mersin off the coast of Senegal, pushing shipping rates upward and expanding risk assessments well beyond the Black Sea. Ukraine’s SBU has publicly claimed responsibility for attacks on the Kairos and Virat, two Russian-linked shadow fleet tankers hit in the Black Sea, which had already elevated war-risk insurance premiums in the region. No party has claimed the Mersin attack, and its occurrence in international waters signals a potentially broader and more troubling risk environment. Insurers now worry that the once-contained premium spikes of the Black Sea may become a global baseline, prompting vessel rerouting, tightening capacity, and lifting freight costs across international trade lanes.
In the attached point-and-figure chart, ZIM is emerging as one of the leaders in the SIA Transportation sector, exhibiting strong technical attributes. Notably, the SIA SMAX score is a perfect 10 out of 10, reflecting outperformance in comparison charts against cash, bonds, commodities, currencies, and other equities. The longer-term 4% scaled chart highlights a recent spread triple-top formation, with overhead resistance near the $27.03 level, corresponding to the old 2022 high, and a higher target at $30.40 based on vertical P&F count methodology. Support levels are first drawn at the three-box reversal of $16.88, with additional lines at $15.01 and along the trend at $12.33.
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, founded in 1945 and headquartered in Haifa, is a flexible “global-niche” carrier serving hundreds of ports in over 90 countries. Its modernized fleet, including LNG-powered vessels, allows it to adjust quickly to volatile market conditions. ZIM’s main routes include Asia–North America, Asia–Mediterranean, Asia–Latin America, and key intra-Asia and transatlantic lanes, along with niche services in the East Mediterranean, India, the Red Sea, and Africa. By focusing on selective deployment and operational agility, ZIM remains well-positioned in the global shipping market.
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