by Yan Taw (YT) Boon, Head of Thematic – Asia, Neuberger Berman
Tesla shareholders recently approved CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package, the biggest in corporate history, endorsing his vision to morph the electric-car maker into an AI-and-robotics juggernaut.1 Musk capped the vote by doing a playful jig on stage with Tesla’s Optimus autonomous robot, which the company aims to start selling in 2026.
Humanoid development appears to be advancing at breathtaking speed, which could create a host of potential investment opportunities for technology investors. With the arrival of agentic AI (software-based intelligence that can plan, reason and execute), robots are tackling a host of repetitive, injury-prone tasks on factory floors. Quite soon, we believe, they’ll be handling a host of annoying chores at home as well.
Capital is rushing in. In October, SoftBank—creator of Pepper, the tablet-chested humanoid greeter—agreed to buy ABB’s robotics business for $5.4 billion. SoftBank’s other investments in the sector include stakes in Berkshire Grey and AutoStore, the $6.5 billion purchase of chip designer Ampere, and a lead role in a $40 billion funding round for OpenAI.2
We believe humanoid development will accelerate as essential elements continue to converge and improve. Humanoids integrate a variety of technologies, including semiconductors (for raw computing power), advanced AI models (for perception and decision making), precision actuators (for smooth, compliant motion) and suites of advanced sensors (for sight, touch, and balance). Many of these components draw from more mature industries with mass-production capability and established supply chains, lending potential scale to humanoid production.
In our view, Musk’s manufacturing ambitions are particularly bold: Autonomous humanoid prototypes already guide visitors through Tesla’s engineering headquarters, and its next iteration—Optimus B3—is slated to debut in 1H 2026. Musk says the first production line, in Fremont, Calif., will produce around 1 million units annually, with potential expansion to Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas plant, which might churn out 10 million a year.3
Meanwhile, Tesla has plenty of company:
- Figure AI, based in San Jose, Calif., unveiled its third-generation humanoid with faster vision and improved hand control. Figure’s humanoid, Helix, executes unscripted chores like dishwashing, folding laundry, watering plants and serving food. The company says it expects to ship 100,000 units over the next four years.4
- Neo—a consumer-friendly bot from a company called 1X—uses a "human-in-the-loop" training model in which a human operator (based at 1X) guides the humanoid through tasks it will eventually learn to perform autonomously. Customers can pre-order their Neo for $20,000 upfront, or $499 per month.5
- In China, UBTECH’s Walker S2 is the first humanoid that can change its own batteries (in about 3 minutes) without human intervention; the company has partnered with auto OEMs, such as BYD and Dongfeng, to pilot its bot at their factories.6 In November, Xpeng revealed “Iron”, a humanoid that walks and interacts like a human; Iron moves so naturally that, during a recent presentation, Xpeng’s founder, He Ziaopeng, removed the bot’s synthetic exterior to prove that there was no human hidden inside.7 Meanwhile, the “Cyberone” bot, from Xiaomi Robotics Lab, not only can walk and handle objects, but it can also recognize 45 different human emotions and respond empathetically.8
- And on the software side, Nvidia is developing training tools and digital-twin technology that helps robots learn to function in the real world by simulating their movements using real-time data.9
Goldman Sachs expects the humanoid market to reach $38 billion by 2035, up more than sixfold from a previous projection of $6 billion,10 while Fortune Business Insights forecasts nearly 50% annual growth, to $66 billion, by 2032.11
Whatever the real number turns out to be, we believe the direction of growth and opportunity is clear—and that discerning technology investors may soon have reason to sing that old 80’s rock refrain: “Thank you very much, Mr. Roboto!”
Copyright © Neuberger Berman
