A 4-Year Bear Market… Then a 26% Breakout: Inside INCY’s Stunning Reversal

by SIACharts.com

SIA Charts’ relative strength rankings assist investors in identifying stocks that are outperforming their peers or index benchmarks. Outperformance typically indicates positive investor expectations for a company or sector. The rankings not only help investors to identify which stocks in a universe are outperforming and underperforming against their peers, but also when relative performance trends are changing. Today we are going to highlight another name in the Drug area exhibiting outperformance of late. To illustrate this strength, let’s review the shares of Incyte Corp. (INCY) which is a constituent of the S&P 500 Index.

INCY currently occupies the 25th spot out of 505 positions in the SIA S&P 500 Index report and is showing consistent strength of late; up 5 spots in the last week, 60 spots on the last month, and 132 spots in the last quarter. It entered the favored zone of the report back on August 13, 2025, at a price of $85.87. As of yesterday’s, the shares are at $108.16 close, which represents a 25.9% increase in a little under 3 months time. This exemplifies the example of always looking for names in the favored zone as that is where the strength lies as the broad-based S&P 500 Index, over the same 3-month period, has returned only 7.42% which is an outperformance of over 18.00%.

In looking at the attached candlestick chart of INCY, the shares primarily have been in a downward trend from its high of $110.00 in June 2020 to the bottom it reached in October 2023 at just above the $50 area. Interestingly, the shares also bottomed out at just above $50 in April 2024 indicating a classic double bottom pattern marking the end of its 4 year bear run. Since that time, the bulls finally took over, and the trend reversed upward to a high at $82 in November 2024 followed by a violent reversal to the high $50.00’s in April of this year but holding onto a higher high from its ultimate bottom. Another bull run transpired since earlier this year charging above the $82 November 2024 high and breaking above $100 whole number and prior psychological resistance level. Currently, the shares are challenging the old high of $110 which is where the shares were since the beginning of this longer-term chart. This $110 level will act as rather significant resistance and will be a price level to watch to see if the shares can break above that price point. If it does, the shares will mark a new higher high not seen it over 5 years. Only time will tell which direction the shares will migrate towards as we head into this upcoming inflection point.

In looking at the Point and Figure chart at a 2% scale for an investment grade analysis, we see the shares have indeed been extremely strong over the past 5 months with a rising column of X’s lasting 30 boxes without even a 3 box reversal, breaking above multiple resistance levels most notably the longer term (red) downtrend line at $70.55, and the area clustered around the $84.32 to $89.48 price band.

Now, specifically we can see the upcoming resistance point at $111.26 as the area to watch to see if it can move above this level and onto a new 5 year high. However, with such a massive move the shares may pause, and the current support levels are at its 3-box reversal of $98.79 and, below that, $87.72. The shares currently exhibit a bullish Spread Triple Top pattern and with an SMAX score of a perfect 10 out of 10, Incyte Corp is exhibiting very good near-term strength against the asset classes.

Incyte focuses on the discovery and development of small-molecule drugs. The firm's lead drug, Jakafi, treats two types of rare blood cancer and graft versus host disease and is partnered with Novartis. Incyte's other marketed drugs include rheumatoid arthritis treatment Olumiant (licensed to Lilly), and oncology drugs Iclusig (chronic myeloid leukemia), Pemazyre (cholangiocarcinoma), Tabrecta (lung cancer), and Monjuvi (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma). The firm's first dermatology product, Opzelura, was approved in 2021 for atopic dermatitis. Incyte's pipeline includes a broad array of oncology and dermatology programs.

Disclaimer: SIACharts Inc. specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investors investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIACharts Inc. nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

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