Despite ongoing weakness in employment data suggesting broader economic softness, copper prices have remained notably resilient. This decoupling reflects how traditional economic indicators are no longer fully driving commodity markets. Structural drivers such as constrained global supply, clean energy demand, and infrastructure spending continue to support high copper prices, even in the face of labor market uncertainty.
This divergence signals the potential persistence of inflationary pressures. While equities and bond markets remain relatively muted, copper’s strength may be an early warning sign that inflation is more entrenched than expected. Markets may be underpricing the risk of prolonged commodity-driven inflation, especially for key industrial metals.
To further highlight this potentially secular trend we can look to the attached point and figure chart of High Grade Copper as a continuous contract, allowing SIA practitioners to visualize copper's move. On this 5% scaled chart, which shows the longer term trends, copper has maintained a solid positive trend line dating back to the 2020 lows. During this time copper has established a series of higher tops and higher bottoms, often hugging the positive trend line. The latest move higher occurred this past summer where prices reached $5.71 but have recently settled back to the long-term trend line. This becomes the first level of support at $4.25 while another level of point and figure support is highlighted at $3.92. Resistance, on the other hand, is drawn at $4.78, $5.18, and the top line at $5.83.
Buenaventura Mining Company (BVN) continues to benefit from strong copper fundamentals. As a major player in Peru, it holds valuable stakes in large-scale mines like Cerro Verde and Yanacocha and has recently expanded reserves. The company’s stock has rallied more than 45% in 2025, as higher copper prices, reserve growth, and operational efficiency drive earnings and investor confidence.
Financially, BVN remains strong. Revenue and net income are sharply higher year-over-year, while its low debt and healthy cash position support ongoing project development. With a trailing P/E around 8.8 and forward P/E near 11, the stock remains attractively valued against peers. Analysts appear cautious, leaving room for potential upgrades as fundamentals continue to improve.
Further to our highlighting Peru as a top-performing stock market in yesterday's report, today we are presenting the point and figure chart of BVN. The stock recently moved through long-term resistance dating back to 2012. This new level of support, as a range, begins at $15.89 and extends to $13.07 at the bottom end. Taken together with the only resistance visible on the point and figure chart at $27.18 and the top line at $51.25, this illustrates the favorable risk-reward parameters currently emerging in many copper stocks and even in gold companies with typical copper exposure, such as Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX).
Back to Buenaventura, we also note a perfect SMAX score of 10/10, which further underscores the developing relative strength in favor of BVN as measured against a basket of alternative SIA benchmarks. Metals and Mines remains a favored sector, and BVN is currently positioned in the favored zone of the SIA International ADR Index Report, having rallied to the 31st position. This move has produced a year-to-date gain of 75.49%, with 13.25% of that gain occurring in the past month.
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