by Christopher Gannatti, CFA Global Head of Research, WisdomTree
Key Takeaways
- Alphabet’s groundbreaking Willow quantum processor, introduced in late 2024, has accelerated the potential for practical quantum computing, sparking renewed market interest and investor confidence.
- Robotics continues to reshape industries with immediate impact, as AI-driven innovations like Amazon’s Covariant acquisition enhance efficiency and redefine supply chain management.
- While quantum computing offers long-term transformative promise, robotics provides clear, near-term returns, creating complementary paths for investors balancing vision with immediacy.
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In January 2025, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, sparked a heated debate when he stated, "Quantum computing is a revolutionary technology, but we're still at least 15 years away from seeing its full potential in practical applications."1 This remark was met with a strong response from Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave, who countered, "Quantum computing is already here, delivering value to industries today. The future isn't as far off as people think."2 These contrasting viewpoints underscore the dynamic and evolving narratives around quantum computing and its rival technology, robotics.
In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined. But as we journey through this pivotal moment, a question arises: which of these marvels will shape our world more profoundly, and which will deliver the financial rewards investors seek?
The Promise of a Quantum Leap
Imagine a computer so powerful it could solve problems that today's fastest supercomputers would take millennia to compute. Quantum computing, with its ethereal qubits, defies classical logic, harnessing the strange and wondrous rules of quantum mechanics. Unlike traditional bits, qubits can exist in multiple states simultaneously, enabling computations at speeds that seem almost magical. This power, though still in its infancy, holds the potential to unlock new realms of discovery.
December 2024 also marked a historic announcement by Alphabet, which unveiled its breakthrough Willow chip. This quantum processor boasts an exponential improvement in error correction, addressing one of the field's most significant barriers. Willow's ability to reduce computational errors dramatically accelerates the path toward practical quantum computing.3 Markets reacted with enthusiasm, with Alphabet's stock surging and other quantum-focused companies seeing increased investor interest. This milestone re-energized discussions about quantum computing's potential to deliver real-world impact sooner than expected.
While much of quantum computing's promise lies in the future, there are tangible breakthroughs today. One such example is quantum-safe encryption. In 2024, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released its first set of standards for post-quantum cryptography, providing protocols to safeguard digital communications against potential quantum threats.4 This stands in contrast to the broader aspirations for quantum applications, such as accelerating drug discovery or transforming artificial intelligence—visions that remain several years away.
Picture a pharmaceutical scientist, struggling with the complexity of molecular interactions. Today, simulating these interactions takes immense resources and time, but a quantum computer could map these processes with precision, accelerating the development of life-saving drugs. Companies like IBM and Google, through their IBM Quantum and Google Quantum AI projects, are already making strides in pushing the boundaries of this technology. IBM's roadmap envisions systems with over 4,000 qubits by 2025, a leap that could pave the way for commercial breakthroughs.5
The financial world is equally captivated. Goldman Sachs has invested heavily in quantum algorithms to optimize trading strategies, while startups like Rigetti Computing are exploring new avenues in quantum cloud computing. The quantum computing market, projected to reach $450 billion by 2040, represents a long-term goldmine for those willing to invest early.6
Yet, this frontier comes with immense challenges. Building these machines requires mastering qubits' delicate dance, shielding them from environmental noise that disrupts their harmony. Scalability and error correction loom as monumental hurdles, while the cost of development remains a barrier that confines access to elite institutions. Success is uncertain, but the rewards could be world changing.
The Robotic Revolution in Action
Meanwhile, robotics is no longer a dream of tomorrow; it is the reality of today. Step into a modern factory, and you will see robots tirelessly assembling products with speed and precision unmatched by human hands. These robots, often purpose-built for specific tasks, dominate logistics depots and warehouses. Autonomous mobile robots, akin to advanced Roombas, scurry about, moving goods efficiently within Amazon warehouses and beyond. Their precision, reliability and cost-effectiveness have revolutionized supply chain operations.
Amazon's acquisition of Covariant highlights the transformative role of robotics in logistics.7 Covariant's AI-driven robotic systems specialize in intelligent picking and sorting, combining cutting-edge perception algorithms with real-world adaptability. This partnership enables Amazon to handle a broader range of inventory with unmatched accuracy, cementing its dominance in e-commerce and logistics innovation.
Yet, much of the public's fascination with robotics centers on humanoid robots, which aim to replicate human dexterity and adaptability. Companies like Boston Dynamics have showcased incredible feats of engineering, with robots like Atlas performing acrobatics and complex maneuvers. However, these humanoid robots, while impressive, remain prototypes or specialized tools in research and niche applications. Their widespread adoption is hindered by high costs, technical challenges in achieving human-like versatility and a lack of immediate practical use cases compared to their task-specific counterparts.
In parallel, Toyota Research and Development is advancing robotics with an innovative approach centered on diffusion and large behavioral models.8 By leveraging these models, Toyota's robots are learning from vast datasets of human behaviors, enabling them to adapt to dynamic environments and perform complex tasks with greater autonomy. This approach could pave the way for robots that not only mimic human actions but also anticipate needs and solve problems proactively.
The contrast between these two types of robots highlights the dual pathways robotics is following: practical deployment for immediate industrial impact and aspirational innovation that pushes the boundaries of what machines can achieve. Logistics giants like Amazon rely on the former, while researchers and visionaries continue to advance the latter, driven by the dream of creating machines that seamlessly integrate into human environments.
The robotics market is flourishing, with a projected value exceeding $200 billion by 2030.9 The near-term returns are clear: increased productivity, reduced operational downtime and enhanced safety. However, questions of job displacement and ethical boundaries accompany the proliferation of machines into every corner of society. Addressing these challenges is critical as robotics continues to reshape industries.
A Converging Vision
While these technologies seem to occupy different realms, their trajectories intersect in fascinating ways. Quantum computing could supercharge the AI algorithms that power advanced robotics, making them smarter, more adaptable and capable of solving problems on the fly. Robotics, in turn, provides the physical agents that could bring quantum-derived solutions into the tangible world. Imagine a quantum-powered robotic system that optimizes global logistics or a humanoid robot capable of human-like reasoning thanks to quantum-enhanced artificial intelligence.
The timelines, however, diverge. Robotics, with its maturity and proven applications, is already reshaping industries. The return on investment is clear and immediate for companies adopting robotic solutions. In contrast, quantum computing's journey is more protracted. Its breakthroughs promise a seismic shift, but the rewards lie further on the horizon, contingent on overcoming formidable scientific and engineering challenges.
What Lies Ahead?
As we navigate the future, one truth emerges: the story of quantum computing and robotics is not one of competition but of complementarity. Robotics is the present—an accelerating force driving efficiency, safety and innovation. Quantum computing is the promise—a glimpse into a world where computational boundaries dissolve, revealing solutions once thought unattainable.
For investors, the choice between these technologies hinges on vision and patience. Those seeking near-term gains may gravitate toward robotics, with its clear trajectory and immediate impact. For those willing to venture into the unknown, quantum computing offers the allure of long-term transformation and exponential growth.
In the end, these technologies together form the dual engines of progress, propelling humanity toward a future where imagination meets reality. The journey is just beginning, and the next chapter promises to be even more extraordinary.
1 Source: Emily Bary, "Quantum-Computing Stocks Sink as Nvidia CEO Delivers a Reality Check," MarketWatch, 1/8/25.
2 Source: https://www.dwavequantum.com/company/newsroom/press-release/d-wave-quantum-ceo-dr-alan-baratz-addresses-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-s-quantum-comments-on-cnbc-s-the-exchange/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
3 Source: Hartmut Neven, "Meet Willow, Our State-of-the-Art Quantum Chip," Google Blog, 12/9/24 (https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/)
4 Source: https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards
5 Source: Karmela Padavic-Callaghan, "IBM Will Release the Largest Ever Quantum Computer in 2025," NewScientist, 12/30/24.
6 Source: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2024/long-term-forecast-for-quantum-computing-still-looks-bright
7 Source: https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-covariant-ai-robots
8 Source: https://pressroom.toyota.com/boston-dynamics-and-toyota-research-institute-announce-partnership-to-advance-robotics-research/
9 Source: https://statzon.com/insights/global-robotics-market-growing-rapidly
