SIA Chartsā Relative Strength rankings not only help investors to identify which stocks in a universe are outperforming and underperforming against their peers, but also when relative performance trends are changing.
Vaccine producer Moderna (MRNA) has spent most of the last three years stuck in the red zone of the SIA NASDAQ 100 Index Report. Occasionally, it has popped up into the green zone for short periods only to quickly drop back down the relative strength rankings table.
One of these upward pops occurred in March and April and it now seems to be over with MRNA falling back down into the Yellow Neutral Zone. In the last week, MRNA has fallen 32 spots to 43rd place, a sign that bulls have likely moved on and bears have likely regained the upper hand.
Back in May, Moderna (MRNA) shares broke out of a base, completing an Ascending Triangle pattern with a breakout over $120.00. MRNA then quickly rallied up toward $165.00 before running out of gas and slumping backward. Initially, this looked like a normal pullback after a big move, but this weekās drop below $140.00 appears more concerning.
It now appears that the shares may be setting up for a potential retest of support at their recent breakout point near $120.00. Should that fail, it was suggest a deeper downtrend has started with next potential support near the $100.00 round number. Initial resistance on a bounce appears near $140.00, then closer to the $150.00 round number.
Moderna (MRNA) spent most of 2023 under distribution, then a six-month period from November to May under accumulation. It now appears that the recent uptrend is over and a new downtrend has started. Last month, the shares peaked and started to fall back in what looked like a normal correction. A bounce earlier this month failed after only three rows and the shares have turned downward again, completing a bearish Double Bottom breakdown and embarking on a new downleg.
Initial downside support appears at previous lows near $117.45 followed by $112.90 based on a horizontal count, and the $100.00 round number. Initial resistance on a bounce appears near $146.05 based on a 3-box reversal.
With a bearish SMAX score (which is a near-term 1 to 90-day indicator comparing an asset against different equal-weight asset classes) of 5 out of 10, MRNA is exhibiting short-term weakness against the asset classes.
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