by Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist, & Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab & Company Ltd.
Establishment vs. household surveys
The survey says
![Over the past 15 months, nonfarm payrolls have increased 4.8 million, while the household survey shows a gain of 2.7 million.](https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/071023_a_monthly%20payrolls%20change_0.png)
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/30/2023.
Temporary contraction?
![Temporary employment ticked down to three million in June, a drop of 3.4% year-over-year.](https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/071023_b_temporary%20employment.png)
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/30/2023.
Sticky wage growth
Sticky high wage growth
![June average hourly earnings increased by 4.4% year-over-year.](https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/071023_c_ahe.png)
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/30/2023.
Working a little more?
![Average weekly hours worked in June came in at 34.4, up from May.](https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/071023_d_average%20weekly%20hours%20worked.png)
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/30/2023.
Payrolls' deteriorating breadth
Educated and healthy
![The largest payroll gains in Juneâspecifically within education and health servicesâwere in the middle-wage area.](https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/071023_e_ahe%20vs%20payrolls%20circles.png)
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/30/2023.
Stubbornly low unemployment rate
Low but lagging
![The unemployment rate has historically been near its cycle low when the economy entered a recession.](https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/071023_f_unemployment%20rate.png)
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/30/2023. Y-axis is truncated for visual purposes.
In their prime
![The June labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.6% while the prime-age rate climbed to 83.5%.](https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/071023_g_lfpr.png)
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/30/2023.
In the lead
Claims' ascent
![The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims has risen nearly 33% from its recent trough.](https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/071023_h_claims.png)
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Department of Labor, as of 6/30/2023. Y-axis truncated for visual purposes.
Quits up, but openings down
![Job openings continued their downward trend in May but the quits rate ticked higher.](https://www.schwab.com/learn/sites/g/files/eyrktu1246/files/071023_i_jolts.png)
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 5/31/2023.