The Bottom Line
Focus this week is on results from the FOMC meeting released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus is calling for a 0.75% increase in the Fed Fund Rate and continuation of a program to reduce the Federal Reserve balance by $95 billion monthly.
U.S. equity market indices continue to correlate closely to years ending in “2”. Note that alternate years ending in “2” also are the second year of the four year Presidential cycle.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Analysts lowered earnings estimates slightly last week. According to www.factset.com third quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to increase 3.5% (versus previous estimate at 3.7%) and revenues are expected to increase 8.7%. (versus previous estimate at 8.8%) Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 4.8% (versus previous estimate at 4.9%) and revenues are expected to increase 6.4% (versus previous estimate at 6.5%).
Factset also released preliminary estimates for 2023 showing higher earnings growth, but lower revenue growth than 2022. First quarter 2023 earnings are expected to increase 7.3% (versus previous estimate at 7.4%) and revenues are expected to increase 6.2% (versus previous estimate at 6.3%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to increase 6.2% (versus previous estimate at 6.3%) and revenues are expected to increase 3.6%. For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 8.2% and revenues are expected to increase 4.5%.
Economic News This Week
August U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to slip to 1.440 million units from 1.446 million units in July.
Canadian August Consumer Price Index released at8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in July. On a year-over-year basis, August CPI is expected to increase 7.6% versus a gain of 7.6% in July.
August U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to slip to 4.70 million units from 4.81 million units in July
FOMC Statement is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.75% increase in the Fed Fund Rate. Press conference is held at 2:30 PM EDT.
July Canadian Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 1.0% versus a gain of 1.1% in June. Excluding food and energy July Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.9% versus a gain of 0.8% in June.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 16th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 16th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 16th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Mark Leibovit’s Weekly Comment
Making Money During Declining Markets – HoweStreet
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for September 17th
Mike’s Content (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Greg Harman says “Dark Clouds ahead of FOMC”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8kO5lvzY_M
Greg Schnell discusses “Understanding the price action”
Understanding the Price Action | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com
The Pitch | Greg Schnell, CMT, Tom Bowley, Larry Tentarelli with David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmEkCCeTmaY
Repeat link: Larry Williams says “Down, then up, up and away”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cQZpPM9mHI
David Keller says “Hammer candle as S&P 500 breaks 3900”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG2iFKCoLS8
Greg Harmon notes “Dark clouds ahead of FOMC”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?mc_cid=17e043d1d5&mc_eid=8f8943347e&v=V8kO5lvzY_M&feature=youtu.be
Mary Ellen McGonagle discussed “Next areas of support for markets”
Next Area Of Support For The Markets | Mary Ellen McGonagle | The MEM Edge (09.16.22) – YouTube
Stansberry Research says “The Fed Will Continue to Destroy Your Wealth as It Fails to Fight Inflation”.
The Fed Will Continue to Destroy Your Wealth as It Fails to Fight Inflation – YouTube
Jim Cramer says “I don’t think the Chinese government is telling the truth on economy”
I don’t think the Chinese government is telling the truth on economy, says Jim Cramer – YouTube
Link offered by Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
MegaCap-8 Losing Their Might – Uncommon Sense Investor
Victor Adair’s Trading Desk Notes for September 17th
Trading Desk Notes For September 17, 2022 – HoweStreet
Link offered by Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
MegaCap-8 Losing Their Might – Uncommon Sense Investor
5 Stocks Making the Most of Supply-Chain Issues | Kiplinger
Fed May ‘Just Get It Over With’ Via 100 Bps Increase, Then One More Hike (businessinsider.com)
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Chart of the day
Technical score dropped from +4 to -4 when trend changed from up to down, strength relative to the S&P 500 changed from Positive to Neutral and short term momentum indicators (Stochastics, RSI and MACD) changed from up to down.
Technical Notes for Friday
S&P 100 stock breaking intermediate support included AMZN, NKE, KHC, FDX, CRM and SO.
NASDAQ 100 breaking intermediate support included WDAY, ADI, ADSK, ANSS, ASML, GOOG, GOOGL.NTES, TCOM, IDXX and CDW.
ETFs that broke intermediate support included SPY, EEM, RSP, PHO, PAVE, CARZ, WOOD, IWM, EZA and EWT.
TSX 60 stocks that broke intermediate support included YRI, TECK, GIB and BIP/UN
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 7.20 on Friday and plunged 40.20 last week to 26.00. It changed last week from Overbought to Oversold. Trend is down.
The long term Barometer slipped 1.80 on Friday and dropped 11.40 last week to 27.60. It remains Oversold. Trend is down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 8.85 on Friday and 17.30 last week to 41.35. It remains Neutral. Trend is down.
The long term Barometer slipped 2.95 on Friday and 5.49 last week to 30.38. It remains Oversold. Trend is down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
