The Bottom Line
Observations
Consensus earnings estimates from www.Factset.com for S&P 500 companies on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter of 2022 were virtually unchanged last week despite Wall Street talk of an economic slowdown in the U.S. in the second quarter. According to www.FactSet.com second quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis increased 4.3% and revenues increased 10.2% (up from 10.1% last week).
Consensus earnings and revenue estimates for S&P 500 companies beyond the second quarter on a year-over-year basis slipped slightly last week. According to www.FactSet.com earnings in the third quarter are expected to increase 10.6% (versus 10.7% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 9.8% (versus 9.7% last week). Earnings in the fourth quarter are expected to increase 10.0% (versus 10.1% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 7.5%. Earnings on a year-over-year basis for all of 2022 are expected to increase 10.4% (versus 10.5% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 10.7%.
Economic News This Week
Focus this week is on the May PCE Price Index released on Thursday
May Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.5% in April. Excluding transportation orders, May Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in April.
Next estimate of U.S. first quarter real GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to decrease 1.5% versus the previous estimate a drop of 1.5%.
Federal Reserve Chairman is scheduled to speak at 9:30 AM EDT on Wednesday.
May PCE Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 6.6% versus a gain of 6.3% in April. Excluding food and energy May PCE Price Index is expected to increase 4.9% versus a gain of 4.9% in April.
Canadian April GDP released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.7% in March.
Canadian equity markets are closed on Friday for the Canada Day holiday.
May Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in April.
June ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 55.0 from 56.1 in May.
Earnings News This Week
Russell Index Rebalancing
Rebalancing was effective at the close on Friday. Look for significant volatility in equity prices at the opening today.
2022 Russell Index Rebalancing: What You Need To Know – Forbes Advisor
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 24th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 24th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 24th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
Links offered by Valued Providers
David Keller says “All eyes are on Technology stocks”
All Eyes on Technology Stocks | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
David Keller says “Strong finish for risk assets”.
Strong Finish for Risk Assets | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (06.24.22) – YouTube
John Hopkins says “Enough is enough”.
“Enough is Enough,” Bulls Declare | Top Advisors Corner | StockCharts.com
Mish Sneider asks “Technical bounce or new bullish breakout?”
Mish’s Daily: Technical Bounce or New Bullish Breakout? | Mish’s Market Minute | StockCharts.com
Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com comments
Four Leading Stocks You’ll Be Happy to Own a Year From Now – Uncommon Sense Investor
Hedgeye’s McCullough Nails Another “Quad 4” Bear Market Crash – Uncommon Sense Investor
Exciting Time to Be a Canadian Value Investor | Morningstar
The 10 Best Companies to Invest in Now | Morningstar
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for June 25th
June 25th Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Mark Leibovit asks “How long could bear market last”?
How Long Could Bear Market Last? – HoweStreet
Technical Scoop for June 27th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
NASDAQ Biotech iShares $IBB moved above $119.47 completing a double bottom pattern.
Strength in the Biotech sector was triggered partially by strength in Incyte (INCY) on a move above resistance at $77.62.
Eli Lilly $LLY an S&P 100 stock moved above $324.08 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Bristol-Myers $BMY moved above $78.61 extending an intermediate uptrend.
FedEx $FDX an S&P 100 stock moved above $240.35 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Colgate Palmolive $CL an S&P 100 stock moved above intermediate resistance at $79.68.
Kinross Gold $K.TO $KGC a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$5.05 and US$3.89 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Grain ETN $JJGTF moved below $40.00 completing a double top pattern.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 11.60 on Friday and 20.40 last week to 22.40. It remains Oversold. Short term trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 4.00 on Friday and 11.20 last week. It remains Oversold. Short term trend is up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 5.86 on Friday and 8.56 last week to 14.64. It remains Oversold. Short term trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 3.77 and 2.51 last week to 25.94. It remains Oversold. Short term trend is up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
