Russia’s Missiles Aren’t Working; The Putin Succession Plan

by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.

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Insights and Market Perspectives

THE RUSSIANS HAVE A MISSILE PROBLEM: In an eye-opening article on the Reuters web site this morning, U.S. intelligence experts report that up to 60% of Russia’s precision guided missiles have failed on the battlefield.

THIS DISCLOSURE, REUTERS SAYS, may help explain the inability of Russian troops to meet basic objectives, such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force. The missiles have had persistent problems — from launch failures to missiles failing to explode on impact.

THE INEPT RUSSIAN MILITARY is now retreating in some areas, plagued by missile failures and troop surrenders, a lack of food and fuel, and bad morale. Back in Moscow, some high-ranking defense officials reportedly are under house arrest; they’re increasingly easy scapegoats.
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THE PUTIN SUCCESSION PLAN: Perhaps it’s wishful thinking, but we checked this week on the succession plan should Vladimir Putin leave office. Not surprisingly, Putin has stacked the deck, with no obvious successor. Under the most recent constitutional changes, Putin would be succeed by an obscure tax official, Mikhail Mishustin.

IN JANUARY OF 2020 Putin ousted Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev and his cabinet, and enacted a constitution that would make Mishustin the Russian leader. Should Putin depart office (or this earth) there would be a 90 day campaign followed by a special election.

PUTIN HAS NOT ANOINTED A SUCCESSOR, most analysts believe, because that could incite his enemies, who may attempt to whack him in favor of someone new. In an election, the director of the Federal Security Service, the successor to the KGB, would be in the mix — that would be Alexander Bortnikov. Also in the mix would be Medvedev and Sergey Lavrov, the slimy Foreign Minister.

ONE NAME NOT IN THE RUSSIAN SUCCESSION MIX is Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, and a former close friend of Putin. After being out of sight for several days, as Russian troops failed to advance, Shoigu was seen in public yesterday — but he’s a likely victim when an inevitable purge arrives by summer.
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SUPREME COURT INTRIGUE: Did the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas seek to overturn the 2020 election? Emails from “Ginni” Thomas, a right wing activist, show that she pleaded to Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, seeking to nullify the election results.

THIS IS WORTHY OF A DARK NOVEL, and will be eagerly pursued by the press for months to come; was a Supreme Court justice involved in this? Ukraine is more important, and this is still another reason why many Republicans want to move on from the contested election; whether they can is unclear, as stunning new revelations emerge.

AT THE VERY LEAST, the left wing now has a cause celebre — the Ginni Thomas emails — to counter the right wing’s blistering attacks on Hunter Biden’s emails, which portray the president, his son, and the press in a very unflattering light.

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.

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