by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
PUTIN APPARENTLY HAS USED hypersonic missiles in recent days, President Biden said yesterday. These missiles travel faster than five times the speed of sound and had not been used before in combat.
AN IMMINENT THREAT MAY BE CYBERWARFARE: Biden indicated yesterday that Russia may be close to launching a cyber attack on the U.S. and other countries. This is disconcerting because U.S. intelligence has been unusually accurate in predicting Russian tactics; the initial invasion of Ukraine was predicted precisely.
BIDEN URGED BUSINESS LEADERS yesterday to beef up their cyberwarfare defenses. “It’s a patriotic obligation for you to invest as much as you can,” he stated.
VERY MUCH ON THE TABLE is the use of chemical or biological weapons — which Putin used to kill thousands in Syria. “The more his back is against the wall, the greater the severity of the tactics he may employ,” Biden said.
AND THEN THERE’S THE UNTHINKABLE: A chilling article in this morning’s New York Times quoted military experts who don’t rule out Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in the battlefield. These weapons would be roughly half the size of the Hiroshima bomb, but the destruction and loss of life would be devastating.
IF THE MASSACRE OF INNOCENTS in cities like Mariupol isn’t enough to win this war, Putin is prepared to do much more. He doesn’t care that thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. He wants to crush Ukraine, and is prepared to use horrific weapons to achieve that goal.
THE END GAME: There are three options: the ouster of Putin, perhaps in a public uprising or coup; a truce that gives both countries what they can call a victory; or a decisive victory by one of the two combatants.
UNFORTUNATELY, the first option is very unlikely and the second and third options do not appear to be imminent, as a stalemate persists — which could prompt the war criminal Putin to double down with new weapons.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
