by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Joe Manchin Moves the Goal Posts;
Explosive New Immigration Issue for GOP
November 2, 2021
IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO OVERSTATE THE ANGER among Democrats this morning that’s directed at maverick Sen. Joe Manchin, who wants to delay passage of the social spending bill because, he contends, it’s moving too quickly, without enough vetting.
WE TALKED WITH SOME DEMOCRATIC STAFFERS LATE YESTERDAY, and their reaction was predictably furious. One said: “You’ve got to be kidding — we haven’t spent enough time on this bill?” Others fumed that concession after concession on the price tag and Manchin’s desire to exempt West Virginia from environmental reforms has led to nothing but more demands.
WAIT UNTIL THE PRESIDENT COMES BACK from Scotland, most Democrats said, and there will be a final deal on issues like prescription drug prices, with a House vote by this weekend, passing the basic infrastructure bill along with the social spending measure. The Progressives have capitulated; they’ll take virtually anything.
IT’S LIKE THREADING A NEEDLE, but the odds still favor passage of the basic infrastructure package, costing about $1.2 trillion, and the $1.75 trillion social spending package. House progressives are on board, which leaves Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema as the potential obstacles in the Senate. They will get full-time attention from Biden.
THE NEED TO MOVE QUICKLY may get added impetus in the next 24 hours if Democrat Terry McAuliffe loses his election bid in Virginia, which appears likely. Even if he wins by a whisker, the message to Democrats is withering on education, crime, immigration, inflation, etc.
FOR BIDEN, WHO HAS EXCEEDED LOW EXPECTATIONS in Europe, his legacy hangs in the balance in the next week or two. We think he will grant every wish from Manchin and Sinema and a deal will pass before the U.S. Thanksgiving — but it’s a very close call because the two mavericks will demand more and more.
* * * * *
NEW ISSUE FOR GOP: Republicans are optimistic about Virginia — and their prospects in next year’s elections — and now they have a new issue: a potential payment of hundreds of thousands of dollars to illegal immigrants who are suing the government because they were separated from their families during the Trump Administration crackdown at the Texas border.
THE PROPOSED PAYMENTS COULD RISE TO $1 MILLION per family, and as you can imagine, this has lit up conservative talk radio. Huge payments to illegal immigrants who broke the law will simply encourage more illegal immigration, Republicans say.
THE WHITE HOUSE POSITION is that lawsuits from skilled attorneys, claiming emotional harm to children separated from their families, could be even more expensive than settlements.
THE DETAILS DON’T MATTER: This is an explosive issue, sure to inflame voters who are struggling with high inflation. Never mind that there’s an acute shortage of labor, which immigrants could alleviate — the idea of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to illegal immigrants could be a huge issue heading into the 2022 elections. Biden almost certainly will attempt to kill or greatly reduce potential payments.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
