by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
October 8, 2021
THIS MORNING’S WEIRD DATA had something for everyone, leading us to conclude that the sample last month did not accurately reflect a return to work among individuals whose benefits ended in September. That return will continue — slowly — for the next few months.
Our take is that the unemployment report had four distinct audiences — with four distinct reactions:
Republicans will argue that economic growth is slowing and inflation is still a huge threat; rising prices will be a key element of their 2022 election argument.
Democrats will point to the falling unemployment rate and signs of solid wage gains, but they will insist on more stimulus.
The Federal Reserve has to consider that the jobless rate is now entering “full employment” territory, with accompanying inflationary fears. The Fed’s late-year tapering plans probably haven’t been affected by this confusing new data.
The financial markets may dismiss the entire report as deeply flawed. With the debt ceiling off the front pages for a few weeks, the markets can now focus on earnings.
AS THIS TUMULTUOUS WEEK ends in Washington, a major political story looms: the dramatic return of Donald Trump to the campaign trail, with a major rally planned for this weekend in Iowa.
TRUMP HAS INTIMIDATED the vast majority of Republican politicians, and the policy impact, unfortunately, is clear: more dysfunction by late November on keeping the government open while grappling with still another messy debt ceiling debate as the holidays approach.
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SPEAKING OF HOLIDAYS, a happy Thanksgiving to all of our friends in Canada, who will be celebrating on Monday. We’ll be back on Tuesday morning.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
