The Fever Has Broken, Stability is Coming

by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.

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Insights and Market Perspectives

Author: Greg Valliere

January 7, 2021

AFTER YESTERDAY’S APPALLING VIOLENCE, egged on by a delusional Donald Trump, it’s understandable that members of both parties are talking about impeachment or imposition of the 25th amendment, which could oust the president.


AN INEPT INSURRECTION FAILED, and there will be an orderly transition of power on Jan. 20; even Trump pledged as much early this morning. He probably won’t be ousted but his legacy will be forever stained, and his sycophants — Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, etc. — will never recover.

THE TEMPERATURE WILL LOWER SOON: For the next few days, there will be speculation about removing Trump, largely out of fear over what he may do — especially geopolitically — in his final two weeks. And there will be questions about why the Capitol Hill police were so pathetically caught off guard yesterday. But a change is coming . . .

JOE BIDEN, THE PERFECT ANTIDOTE: There’s no politician in either party who has what Biden brings — he’s soft-spoken, patriotic and relatively moderate, with a refreshingly modest ego. Biden is far from perfect, but he’s the anti-Trump.

THE COUNTRY WILL RECOVER FROM YESTERDAY, and Congress will begin normal business by the end of this month — debating the next stimulus bill, moving on a minimum wage hike, confirming Biden’s Cabinet nominations.

REPUBLICANS FACE A DEEP FISSURE, but the party’s adults surely must realize that the hard-core Trump base is an albatross. Mitch McConnell knew this all along, yet he made a Faustian deal with the devil. The party won’t touch that hot stove again. Trump as nominee in 2024? Not after yesterday.

BY SPRING THE ECONOMY will be humming — thanks to another stimulus bill and continued Federal Reserve accommodation. Anyone who wants a vaccine will have one by summer. And Trump will be preoccupied by a flood of legal challenges, mostly in the southern district of New York.

YESTERDAY’S HORRORS WON’T BE EASILY FORGOTTEN, but time stops for no one — the country will heal and Congress will pivot toward the center. Donald Trump and his inner circle will be vilified forever but the page will turn, as it always does.

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.

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