by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: Greg Valliere
January 7, 2021
AFTER YESTERDAY’S APPALLING VIOLENCE, egged on by a delusional Donald Trump, it’s understandable that members of both parties are talking about impeachment or imposition of the 25th amendment, which could oust the president.
THE OUTRAGE IS WARRANTED, BUT THERE’S CONTRARIAN SCENARIO . . .
AN INEPT INSURRECTION FAILED, and there will be an orderly transition of power on Jan. 20; even Trump pledged as much early this morning. He probably won’t be ousted but his legacy will be forever stained, and his sycophants — Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, etc. — will never recover.
THE TEMPERATURE WILL LOWER SOON: For the next few days, there will be speculation about removing Trump, largely out of fear over what he may do — especially geopolitically — in his final two weeks. And there will be questions about why the Capitol Hill police were so pathetically caught off guard yesterday. But a change is coming . . .
JOE BIDEN, THE PERFECT ANTIDOTE: There’s no politician in either party who has what Biden brings — he’s soft-spoken, patriotic and relatively moderate, with a refreshingly modest ego. Biden is far from perfect, but he’s the anti-Trump.
THE COUNTRY WILL RECOVER FROM YESTERDAY, and Congress will begin normal business by the end of this month — debating the next stimulus bill, moving on a minimum wage hike, confirming Biden’s Cabinet nominations.
REPUBLICANS FACE A DEEP FISSURE, but the party’s adults surely must realize that the hard-core Trump base is an albatross. Mitch McConnell knew this all along, yet he made a Faustian deal with the devil. The party won’t touch that hot stove again. Trump as nominee in 2024? Not after yesterday.
BY SPRING THE ECONOMY will be humming — thanks to another stimulus bill and continued Federal Reserve accommodation. Anyone who wants a vaccine will have one by summer. And Trump will be preoccupied by a flood of legal challenges, mostly in the southern district of New York.
YESTERDAY’S HORRORS WON’T BE EASILY FORGOTTEN, but time stops for no one — the country will heal and Congress will pivot toward the center. Donald Trump and his inner circle will be vilified forever but the page will turn, as it always does.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.