by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
DEFINITIVE RESULTS ARE UNLIKELY TONIGHT: It could take days for officials to count mail-in ballots â and then there will be recounts and inevitable lawsuits that could take weeks to resolve. Itâs 2020 after all; expect the unexpected.
THE REPUBLICANS PROBABLY WILL WIN TODAYâS VOTING, since a large percentage of the nearly-100 million votes already cast went to Democrats. So have enough Democrats voted to maintain the partyâs lead? Hereâs our take â
The Easy Calls â
Democrats will maintain their control of the House, probably picking up a few more seats; they presently have a 35-seat majority. Joe Biden will easily win the popular vote, perhaps by 5 or 6 million votes.
The Big Call â
If polltakers are even more wrong than in 2016, Donald Trump has a chance. But most polltakers have increased their weighting of white males who never attended college (the heart of Trumpâs base).
Michigan and Wisconsin should be comfortable Biden wins, and heâs ahead by just enough in Pennsylvania to win there, even if the polls are off by a little. But those three pivotal states may report late, which could arouse suspicions.
We think Biden is on a path to about 300 electoral votes, hardly a landslide, just 30 more votes than required. He could pick off Georgia or North Carolina, but he doesnât have to; Pennsylvania is the key, although Biden has several paths to 270, many more than Trump.
The toughest call â
The Senate, with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, still looks very close. Republicans may lose four of their seats while the Democrats lose only one â creating a 50-50 tie that the Democrats would break. Or the Democrats could gain control by 51-49. Or we may have to wait for a runoff election on Jan. 4 in Georgia.
* * * * * *
SO WILL THIS BE A BLUE WAVE? It wonât be a tidal wave, in our opinion, just a âlight blue wave,â because Democrats need a bigger Senate majority to ensure passage of progressive legislation. A couple of Senate Democrats, maybe more after tonight, are moderates.
THE DEMOCRATS WOULD BE IN FAR BETTER SHAPE tonight if they had done more with African Americans and Hispanics, or done more with voter registration. But with women and seniors strongly opposing Trumpâs handling of the pandemic, the Democrats are headed for a pretty good night.
* * * * * *
NOW THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE LAWYERS: Hundreds of attorneys from each party will challenge voting, demand recounts, and seek to invalidate mail-in ballots. We could be spared this if Florida or North Carolina break early tonight for Biden; that might make legal challenges moot.
BUT TRUMP IS LIKELY TO CHALLENGE a close outcome, with Attorney General Barr taking a case all the way to the Supreme Court. A final ruling may not come until December, which would not be a welcome development for the financial markets.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGFâs suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
