by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: Greg Valliere
October 15, 2020
WITH DONALD TRUMP STILL TRAILING by about 10 points, it’s time for an October surprise, and a doozy is percolating. Like a bad spy novel, this involves Hunter Biden, Rudy Giuliani, the New York Post and charges of social media censoring.
WILL ANY OF THIS MATTER? Joe Biden raised an astonishing $383 million in September, more than enough to pay for a TV ad blitz in the next two weeks — as the Trump camp struggles to find enough money to compete in over a dozen key states.
HERE COMES THE NEW YORK POST with allegations, based on information on a laptop computer allegedly owned by Hunter Biden that got into Giuliani’s hands. There doesn’t appear to be a “smoking gun” that could derail the former vice president, who pushed back aggressively yesterday over allegations that he ever met with a controversial Ukrainian energy official.
BUT TRUMP SUDDENLY HAS TWO ISSUES: First, conservatives are furious that companies like Facebook and Twitter moved to censor the allegations. The Wall Street Journal editorial page took the bait this morning, claiming that these companies have a bias that favors the left.
SECOND, EVEN IF THERE’S NO SMOKING GUN, this will become a Republican crusade against the very controversial Hunter Biden, whose-well documented cocaine re-habs and fondness for strippers has become fair game for the New York Post and others on the right.
THE POST ARTICLE COULD BE PART of a Russian disinformation campaign, Joe Biden’s camp charged yesterday, so here we are again — could this resemble the 2016 furor over Hillary Clinton’s emails? With Trump well behind in all polls, he has new issues to exploit — and make no mistake, there’s another looming issue: in the final days of the campaign, Biden will be accused of senility.
SO WELCOME TO ANOTHER UGLY CAMPAIGN, sure to heat up in the coming days. But there’s another important issue that won’t go away — the alarming new cases of Covid-19 in hard-hit states like Wisconsin. The one subject that Trump wants to avoid is becoming more alarming.
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STIMULUS TALKS, RIP: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin pretty much pulled the plug yesterday on getting a pandemic stimulus bill. He said Nancy Pelosi simply doesn’t want to give Trump a pre-election victory, and he’s correct. Deservedly, Pelosi is getting bad press over her stonewalling.
BUT A STIMULUS BILL WILL PASS: It’s simply a question of when — possibly in a lame duck session, but Republicans won’t be in a mood to spend much. A bill might not pass until later in the winter; many Democrats, hoping for a “Blue Wave,” think they can get a huge measure enacted in February.
THE ECONOMY WILL LOOK GREAT when the third quarter GDP report is released on Oct. 29; the Atlanta Fed is predicting a 35.2% rise. That’s largely because the number will be a statistical make-up for the terrible second quarter report. Actually, signs of a softening economy are increasingly apparent.
BUT THAT WON’T MOTIVATE CONGRESS, which is hopelessly gridlocked on a stimulus bill, just as the need for one becomes increasingly apparent.
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