by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: Greg Valliere
April 30, 2020
AFTER HITTING A LOW POINT last week, when he talked about injecting disinfectants, President Trump has bounced back — thanks to hopes for a vaccine and market-soothing comments from Jerome Powell. The main political story, however, involves Joe Biden and a third-party challenger.
BIDEN HAS BEEN CONFINED in his 6,800 square foot lakeside mansion outside of Wilmington, Del. Working from a basement studio, he has live-streamed interviews and speeches, while not addressing a sexual assault allegation that has prompted associates of the alleged victim to speak out about what she told them immediately after the alleged incident.
THE SEXUAL ASSAULT ALLEGATION probably won’t ever go away, and Trump has his own accusers, but there’s another development that has Trump happy and Democrats worried: the emergence of a third party candidate — Rep. Justin Amash (R), the near-certain Libertarian Party nominee, who could make a difference in several hotly-contested states.
AMASH VOTED FOR IMPEACHMENT, so it’s unlikely that he will win many Republican votes; Trump’s base is rock-solid. Trump actually has urged Amash to run — the president knows his base isn’t interested in the Michigan maverick, just as they were dismissive of GOP Sen. Jeff Flake — a noisy Trump critic.
BUT BERNIE SANDERS’ SUPPORTERS, many of whom will never jump on the Biden bandwagon, will listen to the libertarian arguments — especially after New York state cancelled its primary, infuriating the Sanders camp, which wants more delegates who could stiffen the party’s platform.
LIBERTARIAN CHALLENGER GARY JOHNSON won 3.3% of the vote nationwide in 2016, including 4.1% in Arizona, where a cliffhanger is likely this year (especially if Flake, an Arizonian, endorses Amash). And another challenge could come from the Green Party, which has several challengers for its nomination, including former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura.
NEITHER AMASH NOR VENTURA are likely to win even 5% of the vote nationwide, but sometimes a third party candidate has an enormous impact. Leftist Ralph Nader won only 3.7% of the vote nationwide in 2000 but he captured 97,488 votes in Florida, a state that Al Gore lost by 537 votes.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEK OBVIOUSLY is the very good news on a potential virus vaccine; findings at both Gilead and the Jenner Institute at Oxford University have encouraged Dr. Anthony Fauci and boosted hopes that a vaccine could become available by this winter, possibly even sooner.
THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUED yesterday as Powell assured reporters that the Fed is prepared to do whatever is necessary to boost the economy. Once an albatross for Trump, Powell now appears to be an asset.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT to fuel the famous Trump spin, which he will update at a campaign event in Arizona next week. He will promise a vaccine and a better economy — while Biden seems trapped in his basement, now looking over his shoulder at accusers and a third-party challenger.
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