by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
NO ONE WILL EVER KNOW WITH CERTAINTY who won the Iowa caucuses, but there’s no question who lost — reeling Joe Biden, who probably will finish a distant fourth or possibly even fifth in the popular vote tally. His campaign is imploding.
WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE that Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire next Tuesday; Biden could finish second or third. The former vice president has a narrow lead in the Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses, and is clinging to a shrinking lead in the Feb. 29 South Carolina primary — his alleged “firewall” because African-Americans allegedly will give him a victory.
BIDEN PROBABLY WILL WIN ENOUGH DELEGATES in the March 3 Super Tuesday primaries to remain in the race, but it’s becoming clear that he simply may be out of juice. Democrats want red meat, or a fresh face, and Biden brings neither to the race. Some quick observations in the wake of the Iowa fiasco:
BERNIE SANDERS, FRONT-RUNNER: If he wins in California on Super Tuesday, Sanders could be on his way to a first-ballot victory. This terrifies establishment Democrats, who will aggressively attempt to stop Sanders; his supporters fear sabotage, and those fears are not unwarranted.
WE REITERATE YESTERDAY’S ASSERTION that Mike Bloomberg, spending even more lavishly, now has a clear opening. Many Democrats hate the idea of a Wall Street billionaire buying the nomination, but their hatred of Trump exceeds their reservations about Bloomberg.
THE LONG-SHOT SCENARIO that can’t be totally ruled out is that voters now take another look at Pete Buttigieg and conclude that it’s time for a fresh face. He has the money to last until the July convention.
EVERYTHING’S BROKEN: The Iowa caucuses are broken, hopefully for good; the Democrats are in disarray, their gloom growing today as Donald Trump wins acquittal; and Washington is broken, as Trump and Nancy Pelosi graphically demonstrated last night.
THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS was a preview of Trump’s campaign themes. His boasting about economic accomplishments was wildly exaggerated, but so what? His Gallup approval rating hit 49% yesterday, a personal best. And now Democrats — who thought Joe Biden would have the best chance to beat Trump — worry that Biden might not even be in the race by April.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
