The U.S. Has Secret Weapons in the Mideast; Plus, Nancy Pelosi Angers Senate Democrats

by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.

LOST AMID ALL THE SUB-PLOTS in the confrontation between America and Iran is a very intriguing angle — the U.S. has extraordinary resources that can anticipate virtually everything Iran will do.

THE IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACK on Iraqi bases was no surprise. The quick cessation of hostilities was expected. The exact location of Gen. Qassam Soleimani was clear for years (as is the exact location of Kim Jong-un).

AFTER TALKING WITH AN INTELLIGENCE EXPERT, we have the following conclusions: First, there are “moles” within Iran and Iraq who cooperate with the U.S. Second, American satellites are so sophisticated that if you place a pack of cigarettes on the roof of a car in Tehran, the U.S. will know instantly whether they’re Winstons or Marlboros. And heat-seeking satellite imagery can easily track — and intercept — troop and missile movements.

THESE AND OTHER STUNNING TECHNOLOGICAL advances are facilitated by a U.S. defense budget that is close to $750 billion in this fiscal year. Only one other country — China, at about $180 billion — comes remotely close. Russia spends about $50 billion annually on defense, as does Saudi Arabia; Israel spends about $25 billion. The staggering U.S. total will easily exceed $800 billion annually within the next two years.

SUPERIOR U.S. TECHNOLOGY has prompted countries like Iran to rely on other options — cyberwarfare, counterfeiting of U.S. currencies, corporate espionage and hacking, terrorism by proxies, etc. But in addition to superior weapons, the U.S. has the ultimate advantage — human assets, which play a major role in the Mideast; we’re convinced that Washington will be tipped off by spies whenever Iran considers a major operation.
* * * * *
IMPEACHMENT — REMEMBER IMPEACHMENT? It’s about to resurface, even though most of Washington — and the country — seems tired of the issue. Ironically, the most interesting angle now is the growing exasperation by Senate Democrats toward Nancy Pelosi, who has lost her battle with Mitch McConnell to extract concessions before a trial begins.

PELOSI WILL SURRENDER soon, sending articles of impeachment to the Senate within the next few days. She will have to heed the advice of Senate Democratic heavyweights like Dianne Feinstein, who bluntly stated yesterday that “if it’s serious and urgent, send them over; if it’s not, don’t send them over.” Feinstein and a growing number of Democrats envision an impeachment trial crowding out the party’s primaries, which begin in Iowa on Feb. 3 — and they’re resigned to Donald Trump’s acquittal.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF DEMOCRATS, led by Chuck Schumer, who will insist on subpoenas and witnesses; they’re convinced that there will be damaging testimony from John Bolton, who knows where all the bodies are buried. Will Bolton testify? Four Republicans would have to defy McConnell and vote to subpoena witnesses, and they could succeed, inflicting political damage on Trump.

BUT THAT’S ABOUT ALL THEY CAN DO: Trump’s conviction and ouster still looks very unlikely — that would require 20 GOP defectors. So Democrats like Feinstein are saying to Pelosi, in effect, let’s get this over with.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.

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