by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
DEMOCRATS THINK THEY NOW HAVE A CHANCE to seriously wound President Trump in the upcoming impeachment trail, in the wake of John Bolton’s bombshell statement that he’s prepared to testify if subpoenaed. This is a major development.
WE SPOKE WITH A DEMOCRATIC STAFFER who summarized his party’s strategy — get a few Republicans to vote to subpoena Bolton (there could be four, all they need), which would compel him to testify about Rudy Giuliani (a GOP albatross in this narrative). Bolton’s testimony could present enough new evidence about Trump’s role in Ukraine to peel off a handful of Republicans in the trial.
COULD TRUMP GET CONVICTED AND REMOVED FROM OFFICE? That’s still very unlikely; we’ve argued for a year that chances are remote. But Bolton’s testimony could change the narrative, to this extent: it would force Republicans
to concede that Trump did something inappropriate; their fallback would then be that he did not do anything that rises to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors.
WHITE HOUSE OFFICIALS undoubtedly fear the damage Bolton could inflict, especially his testimony on Giuliani’s role. So Trump may attempt to block Bolton’s testimony in the Senate, which could inject Chief Justice John Roberts into this narrative, tilting the scales in favor of having witnesses.
LEFTIST CRITICS OF TRUMP are proclaiming that the Iranian crisis is a smokescreen designed to deflect attention from the impeachment trial, but there’s another scenario: the trial may distract the Trump administration from the very real threat of retaliation from Tehran. The president’s team is spread very thin.
IT WAS CLEAR YESTERDAY that Trump’s inner circle, inexperienced and understaffed, is not ready for prime time, as his aides contradicted themselves (and the president) on a potential withdrawal from Iraq and the targeting of Iranian cultural sites. “They definitely miss Jim Mattis,” a source told us last night, who claimed that Trump has no clear Mideast exit strategy.
AND NOW COMES POTENTIAL TESTIMONY FROM BOLTON, who knows where all the bodies are buried on Ukraine and will be exceedingly difficult for Trump to smear.
BOTTOM LINE: We wrote a few days ago that Trump is only a very narrow favorite to win re-election, largely because the Electoral College map doesn’t look great for him. The financial market consensus is that Trump will win easily, but we continue to believe the markets are too sanguine about his prospects. Bolton could do real damage.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
