Did Joe Biden Win the Nomination Last Night?

by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.

Industry and Expert Views

December 20, 2019

Greg Valliere's daily Capitol Insights

WE’RE STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES of the Democrats’ nomination battle, but this much seems certain after Joe Biden’s strong performance last night: he’s the clear front-runner; the nomination is his to lose.

BIDEN HAS SPENT THE PAST FEW WEEKS in town halls throughout Iowa, and the rust is gone. His sound bites were sharp and forceful last night; that will happen when you practice them every day.

THE DEBATE WAS REFRESHING after weeks of impeachment yelling, which shows no signs of ending. And there were some winners last night in addition to Biden:

Amy Klobuchar: She was relaxed and funny, but hit hard — an iron fist in a velvet glove. Klobuchar has modest funds and little time to climb out of single digits, but she probably locked up the VP nod last night.

Bernie Sanders: Same old Bernie — angry and shouting, passionate about his radical agenda. But he didn’t hurt himself last night and is very much in the running for Iowa and New Hampshire.

Elizabeth Warren: A solid performance but with no new sound bites. She’s a scold with a purity test for every candidate who takes a dollar in fundraising. Warren needed a comeback after several tepid weeks, but no one likes being lectured to.

Pete Buttigieg: He had several strong moments, but got zinged on his fundraising with wealthy Napa wine drinkers. Buttigieg hit back and is exceptionally articulate, but our sense is that he’s peaking six weeks too early.

Andrew Yang: We know people who love him, and we know people who don’t get him. He’s different and worth listening to, but it’s difficult to envision him getting out of single digits.

Tom Steyer: Seriously, what was this lightweight doing on the stage while a serious black candidate, Cory Booker, was excluded?

Mike Bloomberg: His ads are very good (and ubiquitous) but sooner or later voters will have to see Bloomberg in action. How ironic — he thought skipping Iowa and the early races was a smart move, but his premise was that Biden would implode. If Uncle Joe is about to open up a bigger lead, Bloomberg’s task just got even more difficult.

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.