by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: Greg Valliere
October 23, 2019
YOU WOULD THINK that after running the worst presidential campaign in recent history, Hillary Clinton would exit the national stage, but she’s seriously considering a late entry into the 2020 race.
AS WE HAVE WRITTEN SINCE SUMMER, there’s growing anxiety among Democrats about Joe Biden, who has lost a step and can’t raise much money, and Elizabeth Warren, who may be too polarizing to win a general election. Democrats regularly suffer from buyers’ remorse, and here we go again.
WHO HEARS A CALLING? Many are tempted — Ohio populist Senator Sherrod Brown, former Attorney General Eric Holder, and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick are long shots. John Kerry, the windy former Secretary of State, 75. has told friends he might run if Biden stumbles.
SOURCES REPORT THAT MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, 77, is seriously considering a late entry, even though the party is way, way to the left of him. The love persists for Michelle Obama, who could win the nomination and perhaps the presidency — but she hates politics and doesn’t want to run.
AND THERE’S CLINTON: She reportedly still has the itch, like every failed candidate from Howard Dean to Mitt Romney. They and dozens more think they would have been a great president, and they dream of one more chance. So does Clinton, who’s bitter — at James Comey, the Russians, Donald Trump, Tulsi Gabbard, etc.
CLINTON WON AN EXONERATION THIS WEEK from the State Department, which essentially concluded that her deleted emails were trivial. But she still has lots of baggage and Democrats want to move on; most of the party’s leaders consider her radioactive. We doubt she will run, but if she does Trump would be ecstatic.
HOW IRONIC: The Democrats now face a free-for-all — perhaps a deadlocked convention next year — just as a smoking gun turns up in the Ukraine investigation. Testimony this week confirms that that there was a quid pro quo, leaving Trump’s dwindling GOP supporters with weak arguments — the process is stacked against him, the infractions are not impeachable, etc.
TRUMP IS NOW SERIOUSLY VULNERABLE despite the decent economy, but many Democrats have convinced themselves that they don’t have a winning candidate. We think they do — Biden, if he steps up his game. Logic would point to a nominee coming from the current group of candidates, but logic may not apply in the next volatile 12 months.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
