by John Manley, CFA, Wells Fargo Asset Management
John Manley, Chief Equity Strategist with Wells Fargo Asset Management, joins us to take stock of the equity markets.
Brian Jacobsen: Iām Brian Jacobsen, and you are listening to On the Trading DeskĀ®. John Manley, Chief Equity Strategist with Wells Fargo Asset Management, joins us to take stock of the equity markets. John, great to hear from you again.
John Manley: Great to be back. Thanks, Brian.
Brian: Well, John, itās that time of the year, and itās that time of a presidential cycle in which people are looking at the first 100 days and looking forward towards whatās in store for us until we get to the next midterm election. But I wanted to talk a little bit about some political risks, and there have been a lot of them on the calendar. Whatās your assessment of how the equity markets have reacted to these events and anticipated these events?
John: Well, I think they anticipate them very keenly. I think weāve become a little bit inured to them because they havenāt had lasting impact. Brexit, Donald Trumpās election, all these things seem to be shakeups at the time, but they didnāt follow through on the downside. But things seem to hold together, and I think one of the things that are essential for a bull market to have legs is that we see the risk. When we expect the surprise, itās kind of hard to be truly surprised.
So I wouldnāt say this is true in terms of causation, but I would say the stock marketās been hard to stop. Itās been hard to push down. Itās been hard to keep down, and I donāt see why that doesnāt continue. I think the stock market still has a few good things going for it.
Brian: And can you maybe outline what a few of those good things are that the market has going for it?
John: I think that the earnings seem to be improving. The Fed probably is moving towards a more normal rate structure, but thatās only because it thinks the economy can take it. Valuations are not particularly cheap anymore, but they shouldnāt be cheap. Things are getting better. Theyāre not outrageously expensive, either. So this seems to me to be a good environment for owning equities here in the U.S. and overseas, as well.
Brian: Can you talk about that overseas picture? Why overseas and why now?
John: Well, there was an old saying that if the U.S. catches cold, the world gets pneumonia.
I think itās true in reverse that the U.S. economy seems to be getting some legs, for any number of reasons; the biggest beneficiary on the equity side may not be the U.S. market. It may be Europe and emerging markets, as well. Europeās behind us in terms of what theyāre doing, but theyāre getting there. Emerging markets are one of the few values still around. I think almost anyone will admit to that. I think thatās a positive sign, so itās good for the U.S., but it may be better for some of these overseas markets that really havenāt participated as much.
Brian: Now circling this back towards some of the political risks, youāve lived through a lot of different political environments. From your perspective, whatās one of the better ways to position a portfolio given these risks?
John: Well, Iām tempted to say āignoreā, but that really wouldnāt quite be entirely true.
The U.S. will figure things out very, very quickly, and weāre good at getting other people to figure them out, too. So Iāve always worked on the notion that Iāll try to understand what I can understand. You have to manage through it. Donāt be afraid to react. Donāt be afraid to say, alright, something has changed. But the biggest beneficiary of the bull market is the person who has discovered itās getting better. I still think itās pretty good. A lot of concerns out there, but I donāt see them being undeserved. I donāt see them being surprises and I think the effect that it has been probably will continue to be limited on the downside.
Brian: One last question that I have for you is weāre in the early parts of earning season here in the United States, and it looks like earnings per share growth on a year on year basis are going to increase by about 9% or so. But thatās looking backwards, comparing to last year. What about looking forward? Whatās your guess as to what things are going to look like on the earnings front a year from now?
John: I think things are getting better. I think U.S. corporations are showing they can become even more profitable than theyāve been. People look at that and say, well, they canāt get any better. Weāre at the top of the cycle [in terms of] profitability. Well, thatās not quite true. The cycle hasnāt been that strong. Profitability is fairly high, but itās because of issues that have nothing to do with the cycle. I think as the economy improves, and I think it will improve. As that happens, that should filter through into earnings. I think whatās going to happen is the biggest surprise of all, which is what normally happens. The economy gets better. Profits get better. Somehow weāve been so smart; weāve thought our way around that. I think thatās where the positive surprise is.
Brian: So things being somewhat normal could be somewhat surprising?
John: Heh. Yeah, it wouldnāt be the strangest thing. The old normal may become the new normal. We think weāre different. Every generation thinks theyāre special. Everyone thinks things were never like this before. Things do change. Thereās no question about it. But sometimes when you think theyāve changed the most, some of the old truisms are true for a reason.
Brian: Well, for our audience, I remind you thereās more from John Manley on our blog AdvantageVoice. But that is all the time that we have this week. John, thank you so much.
John: Thanks, Brian.
Brian: And until next time, Iām Brian Jacobsen; stay informed.