Ditch the demographic gloom: Europe isn’t dying, yet

January 30, 2017

4 minute read

Reports of the death of the West are greatly exaggerated, it seems. In recent times, there has been a growing narrative about the population’s demise owing to falling birthrates, sparking concern among policymakers about long-term population decline. But trends in fertility have been misunderstood: the underlying trend in Europe is upwards and population aging can be managed, argue David Coleman, professor of demography, Oxford University, and Stuart Basten, associate professor, in their paper The Death of the West: An alternative view.

“There has been a chorus of repetition about Europe’s and the English-speaking world’s declining birthrate, which has become engraved into people’s minds, but this isn’t paying attention to the actual facts, particularly in western Europe,” say Coleman and Basten. In fact, average total fertility in western Europe has been edging up slightly since the 1980s, with strong growth in northern Europe, reaching 1.81 in the UK in 2014 and 2.0 in France, for example. (Total fertility rate is the number of children that the average woman would have if current birthrates persisted.) Birthrates in eastern and southern Europe, although lower, have also been creeping up slowly.

Hence the good news: the West’s share of world population will undoubtedly decline, but sustainable fertility rates should return, given economic recovery and appropriate social reform such as the encouragement of gender equity in the workplace and at home, predict Coleman and Basten. The pair expect birthrates to average out at 2.0. Population aging should remain manageable, as long as total fertility remains above a “safe” limit of at least 1.7 and with appropriate increases in retirement age.

WE’RE ALL EQUAL

Increasing equality between the sexes and a functioning democracy in the Western world is prompting the recovery in the birthrate, explains Coleman. Women have delayed having children, and hence depressed the birthrate, in order to be able to go to university and secure a career. In many countries, that postponement has come to an end.

Changes in attitude towards sexual equality, and the introduction of more family-friendly policies, are enabling Western women to have at least some of the children that they consistently state in surveys that they want to have. This should continue, argue Coleman and Basten. Where progress in these directions is limited, as in parts of southern and eastern Europe, birthrates may remain in the doldrums for longer.

“If women are behaving more like men in the sense that they are now represented in equal or even greater numbers in universities and in senior positions in the workforce, then men have to behave more like women, by helping out in the home, by taking time off to look after the children,” says Coleman. “We also need gender equity in the welfare system to make it easier for women to take time off and then get back into the workplace and receive some compensation for their lack of earnings.” In countries where the prevalent culture embraces equality, the birthrate is high – for example, in western Europe.

Average total fertility in western Europe is showing signs of rising

In more patriarchal societies, such as parts of southern Europe, where a woman’s place is often considered to be in the home, gender equity suffers and so do reproduction rates. Immigration also plays a role. Immigration flows into western Europe boost birthrates by 0.1 to 0.2, says Coleman: most migrants stem from cultures which have more children.

THE MEASURE OF A MAN

So why have we been getting it wrong? It’s partly down to outdated methods of measuring aging, Coleman says. Demographic gloom has been furthered by using the old-age support ratio (the number of people of nominal working age divided by the number of people of pensionable age) as a standard measure. In western Europe, the ratio is currently four. If you project the population forward, this ratio grows worse. Coleman believes we should instead be using indicators that adjust for the increasingly high boundaries of healthy working life, also taking into account the upwards adjustment of pension age.

“The current indicators have a rigid set of boundaries that don’t make sense in light of increasing life expectancy,” explains Coleman. “We are currently adding an additional three months of life for each calendar year that passes, so these indicators don’t take into account the higher proportion of people living into older age in a healthy condition.” He believes it would be better to calculate the basis of old age starting when expectation of life is down to 15 years. Then a more favorable picture of Western demographics emerges.

EAST VERSUS WEST

While this is good news for Western demographics, it’s not the case in east Asia, for example, which faces different challenges. The two demographers have predicted that birthrates in the East will fall for some time to a lower rate than those in Europe as patriarchal societies and gender inequality hamper ability to react to demographic change.

China has particular problems. As well as suffering from population aging, the country risks a dangerously low birthrate, close to the global warning line of 1.3, or the “low fertility trap.” Population growth has been cut through a one-child policy, averting over 400 million births, according to Chinese calculations. But reforms to allow families to have at least two children will have little effect: according to surveys, Chinese city dwellers don’t want a second child due to cramped living conditions and the desire to dedicate material resources to just one child.