The Smallest Range in 5 Years

by LPL Research

Friday might not have felt like much, as the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% for the day ā€“ but it did trade in a daily range of 1.3%, which was the largest daily intraday range since and the post-Brexit volatility in late June. To put that in perspective, 29 of the first 30 days this year traded in a range larger than Fridayā€™s.

Also, Friday marked the first three-day losing streak for the S&P 500 in 50 days, the longest streak without three red days in a row since 57 in a row during the summer of 2014 (ending in early September). Then looking only at daily closes, the S&P 500 hasnā€™t added or lost more than 1% for 35 straight days (today could be 36), the longest streak without a 1% move since 62 in a row during the summer of 2014 (ending in mid-July).

Bloomberg noted today that going back 30 days, the S&P 500 has traded in a range of 1.5%, the smallest range since 1965. Taking a closer look at intraday moves, Friday marked the end of a record 17 straight days of an intraday range of less than 0.75%. Using data back to 1970, this was the longest streak ever and incredibly the second longest streak of 16 straight days took place only a month ago. So going back 45 years, over the past seven weeks, the two longest streaks without an intraday move of more than 0.75% have taken place. The two previous longest streaks were in July 1985 (15 days) and December 1994 (14 days).

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What does this all mean? The bottom line is the lack of volatility weā€™ve seen lately is truly historic. It is important to note though that it wonā€™t stay this way forever. Non-volatile times eventually transition to volatile timesā€”this has happened throughout market history and we expect it will continue to happen. Then donā€™t forget that September and October, two of the most volatile months, are on tap. Although we do expect volatitly to heat up later this year, it is important to note this isnā€™t a reason to panicā€”as this volatility is actually perfectly normal.

 

Copyright Ā© LPL Research

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.

Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal and potential illiquidity of the investment in a falling market.

The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor

MemberĀ FINRA/SIPC

Tracking #1- 530355 (Exp. 08/17)

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