by Don Vialoux, EquityClock.com
Economic News This Week
Canadian November Housing Starts to be released at 8:15 AM EST on Monday are expected to increase to 200,500 from 183,600 in October
October Wholesale Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to slip to 295,000 from 297,000 last week
November Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in October. Excluding auto sales, November Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in October.
October Business Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in September.
November Producer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to decline 0.1% versus a gain of 0.2% in October. Excluding food and energy November Producer Prices are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in October.
December Michigan Sentiment Index to be released at 9:55 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 89.5 from 88.8 in November.
Earnings News This Week
Thackray’s Monthly Videos
Following are links:
Market comment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF1u8JAupOw
Sector comment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqyV_RXpkJc
Summary of Weekly Seasonal/Technical Parameters for Equity Indices/ETFs
Seasonal: Positive, Negative or Neutral on a relative basis applying EquityClock.com charts
Trend: Up, Down or Neutral
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive, Negative or Neutral
Momentum based on an average of Stochastics, RSI and MACD: Up, Down or Mixed
Green: Upgrade
Red: Downgrade
The S&P 500 Index added 7.81 points (0.38%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of trending down.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average slipped last week to 83.60% from 84.00%. Percent is intermediate overbought and has rolled over.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 79.60% from 77.40%. Percent is intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week to 76.20% from 73.80% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks fell last week to 51.79% from 55.78% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index continues to trend down.
The TSX Composite Index fell 271.00 points (1.84%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 1.0). The Index remains below its 20 day moving average (Score: 0.0). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative (Score: 0.0). Technical score remains at 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average fell last week to 43.33% from 46.22%. Percent continues to trend down.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 130.55 points (0.73%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score remained at 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks increased last week to 86.67% from 80.00% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent for NASDAQ Composite Index slipped to 55.76% from 56.03% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains in an uptrend, but is intermediate overbought.
The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 10.88 points (0.23%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down.
The Russell 2000 Index added 9.20 points (0.78%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 changed to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 2.0 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators changed from a downtrend to a mixed trend.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 46.20 points (0.50%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Technical score slipped to 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over and are trending down.
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 15.49 points (0.29%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have bottomed from oversold levels and are trending up
The Nikkei Average gained 460.60 points (2.64%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
iShares Europe slipped 0.08 points (0.18%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Technical score slipped to 2.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down.
The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 254.81 points (9.50%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
iShares Emerging Markets fell $0.62 (1.39%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from up on a move below $40.91. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score slipped to 0.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar Index added another 0.95 (1.07%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have resumed trending up, but are overbought.
The Euro fell another 1.57 (1.26%) last week. Intermediate downtrend was reaffirmed on a move below 123.59. The Euro remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold
The Canadian Dollar slipped US0.09 (0.10%) last week. Intermediate trend was reaffirmed on a move below 87.32 on Friday. The Canuck Buck remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold.
The Japanese Yen dropped another 1.92 (2.28%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are deeply oversold.
Commodities
Summary of Weekly Seasonal/Technical Parameters for Commodity Indices/ETFs
Seasonal: Positive, Negative or Neutral on a relative basis applying EquityClock.com charts
Trend: Up, Down or Neutral
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive, Negative or Neutral
Momentum based on an average of Stochastics, RSI and MACD: Up, Down or Mixed
Green: Upgrade
Red: Downgrade
The CRB Index fell 2.04 points (0.80%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0.
Gasoline dropped another $0.07 per gallon (3.83%). Intermediate trend remains down. Gas remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains negative.
Crude Oil fell $0.31 per barrel (0.47%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Crude oil remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and are oversold.
Natural gas fell $0.31 per MBtu (7.58%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from up on a move below $3.93. “Natty” remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score slipped to 0.5. Short term momentum indicators changed to a downtrend from a mixed trend.
The S&P Energy Index added 6.95 points (1.19%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Philadelphia Oil Services Index fell 5.01 points (2.32%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and are oversold.
Gold added $17.10 per ounce (1.45%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Gold moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score improved to 1.5 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators changed to trending up from mixed.
Silver added $0.79 per ounce 5.10%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Silver moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 1.5 from 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators changed to an uptrend from a downtrend. Strength relative to gold changed to neutral from negative.
The AMEX Gold Bug Index added 3.22 points (1.98%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 0.5 from 0.0. Short term momentum indicators changed to mixed from trending down. Strength relative to Gold remains neutral
Platinum added $12.30 per ounce (1.02%) last week. Trend remains down. PLAT moved above its 20 day MA. Relative strength changed to neutral. Relative to gold remains neutral.
Palladium dropped $7.70 per ounce (0.95%) last week. Trend remains up. PALL remains above its 20 day MA. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators changed to mixed from up.
Copper added $0.06 per lb. (2.10%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Copper remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have bottomed and have started to trend up.
The TSX Metals and Mining Index dropped 23.03 points (3.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral. Technical score slipped to 1.0 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down.
Lumber added $8.70 (2.64%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Lumber remains above its 20 day MA. Strength relative to the S&P 500 changed to positive from neutral.
The Grain ETN added $0.70 (1.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score remains at 2.5 out of 3.0. Momentum remains in an uptrend.
The Agriculture ETF slipped $0.02 (0.04%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral. Technical score slipped to 2.0 from 2.5. Short term momentum indicators were trending down.
Interest Rates
The yield on 10 year Treasuries increased 11.3 basis points (5.15%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF fell $1.40 (1.14%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Price remains above its 20 day moving average.
Other Issues
The VIX Index fell 1.57 (11.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average.
Earnings news is expected to be quiet this week. Focus stocks include Costco on Wednesday and Adobe on Thursday.
Economic news this week is expected to show slow but steady economic growth in the U.S. Focus in on Retail Sales to be released on Tuesday.
Tax loss pressures reach their maximum influence during the next two weeks. The focus is on the energy and precious metal stocks. Thereafter, seasonal influences turn exceptionally strong until at least the first week in January.
Equity markets will be helped by the traditional release of bullish research reports offering an outlook for 2015.
Recent accommodative monetary policies in China, Japan and Europe plus lower energy prices favour higher equity prices.
Short and intermediate technical indicators are overbought. Some are showing signs of peaking.
The Bottom Line
Preferred strategy is to hold seasonally attractive equity positions and to add to positions on likely weakness during the next two weeks. Preferred sectors include Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Materials.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
Monitored List of Technical/Seasonal Ideas
Green: Increased score
Red: Decreased score
A score of 1.5 or higher is needed to maintain a position
StockTwits Released on Friday @equityclock
Technicals by S&P 500 stocks to 10:45: Bullish. 14 stocks broke resistance. None broke support. 12 of the 14 breakouts were Financials.
S&P Financials breaking intermediate resistance to 10:45: $BAC, $BBT, $BEN, $ETFC, $JPM, $MTB, $PNC, $PRU, $RF, $SCHW, $STI
Technical Action by Individual Equities
One TSX 60 stock broke support, Bank of Nova Scotia.
Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc.
Individual equities mentioned in StockTwits are not held personally or in HAC.
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC December 5th 2014
by Don Vialoux, EquityClock.com
