by Don Vialoux, Timing the Market
Economic News This Week
June Pending Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT
on Monday are expected to be unchanged versus a gain of 6.1% in
May.
May Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price Index to be released
at 9:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to drop to a gain of 9.9%
on a year over year basis versus a gain of 10.8% in April.
July Consumer Confidence to be released at 10:00 AM EDT
on Tuesday is expected to increase to 85.5 from 85.2 in June
July ADP Employment report to be released at 8:15 AM EDT
on Wednesday is expected to drop to 225,000 from 281,000 in
June.
Preliminary Second Quarter Real GDP to be announced at
8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to grow at a 2.9% rate
versus a 2.9% decline in the first quarter.
FOMC Decision on monetary policy is expected to be
announced at 2:00 AM EDT on Wednesday.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT
on Thursday is expected to increase to increase to 300,000
from 284,000 last week.
Canada’s GDP in May to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on
Thursday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in
April.
July Chicago PMI to be released at 9:45 AM EDT on
Thursday is expected to increase to 63.1 from 62.6 in June.
July Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on
Friday are expected to fall to 225,000 from 288,000 in June.
Private Non-farm Payrolls are expected to drop to
223,000 from 262,000 in June. The Unemployment Rate is
expected to remain unchanged at 6.1%. Hourly Earnings
are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in June.
June Personal Income to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on
Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in
May. June Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.4%
versus a gain of 0.4% in May.
July Michigan Sentiment to be released at 9:55 AM EDT on
Friday is expected to increase to 81.4 from 81.3 in June.
July ISM to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is
expected to increase to 56.0 from 55.3 in June.
June Construction Spending to be released at 10:00 AM
EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of
0.1% in May.
Earnings News This Week
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Equity Trends
The S&P 500 Index gained 0.12 (0.00%) last week.
Intermediate trend is up. The Index remains above its 20 day
moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day
moving average fell last week to 64.80% from 71.00%.
Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day
moving average fell last week to 82.20% from 85.60%.
Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks slipped last
week to 82.60% from 82.80% and remained below its 15 day
moving average. The Index is intermediate overbought and
trending down.
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Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks was unchanged
last week at 81.97% and remained below its 15 day moving
average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and is
trending down.
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The TSX Composite Index gained 188.37 points (1.23%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 1.0). The Index
remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to
the S&P 500 Index remains positive (Score: 1.0). Technical
score based on the above parameters is 3.0 out of 3.0. Short
term momentum indicators are trending up.
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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving
average increased last week to 61.32% from 58.02%. Percent
has returned to an overbought level.
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Percent of TSX trading above their 200 day moving average
increased last week to 78.19 from 75.72. Percent remains
intermediate overbought.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 139.61 points (0.82%)
last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average fell
below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Strength relative to
the S&P 500 Index changed from positive to negative.
Technical score fell to 1.0 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term
momentum indicators are trending down.
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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average
stocks slipped last week to 86.67% from 90.00% and
slipped below its 15 day moving average. Percent is
intermediate overbought.
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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased
last week to 58.67% from 58.61% and remained below its 15
day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought
and trending down.
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The NASDAQ Composite Index added 17.41 points (0.39%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains
above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score remained at
2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
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The Russell 2000 Index dropped 6.89 points (0.60%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains
below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at
0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
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The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 42.75 points
(0.51%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The
Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength
relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical
score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators
are trending up, but are overbought.
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The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index gained 55.00
points (0.35%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up.
The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength
relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical
score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators
are trending up.
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The Nikkei Average gained 242.17 points (1.59%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average moved
above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score improved to
2.5 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
mixed.
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Europe 350 iShares fell $0.03 (0.06%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains down. Units remain below their 20
day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0.
Short term momentum indicators are oversold and showing early
signs of bottoming.
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The Shanghai Composite Index gained 67.54 points (3.28%)
last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains
above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Technical
score improved to 3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum
indicators are trending up.
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iShares Emerging Markets added $0.62 (1.40%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
changed from neutral to positive. Technical score improved to
3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
trending up.
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Summary of Weekly Seasonal/Technical Parameters
for Equity Indices/ETFs
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Key:
Seasonal: Positive, Negative or Neutral on a relative
basis applying EquityClock.com charts
Trend: Up, Down or Neutral
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive,
Negative or Neutral
Momentum based on an average of Stochastics, RSI and
MACD: Up, Down or Mixed
Twenty Day Moving Average: Above, Below
Green: Upgrade
Red: Downgrade
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar Index gained another 0.62 (1.40%) last
week. Intermediate trend changed from neutral to up on a
move above 81.065 on Friday. The Index remains above its 20 day
moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
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The Euro fell 0.96 (0.71) last week. Intermediate trend
remains down. The Euro remains below its 20 day moving average.
Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are
oversold.
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The Canadian Dollar fell 0.71 (0.76%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. The Canuck Buck remains below
its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are
trending down.
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The Japanese Yen slipped 0.45 (0.46%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Yen fell below its 20
day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending
down.
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Commodities
The CRB Index added 0.92 (0.31%) last week. Intermediate
trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving
average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains
negative.
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Gasoline slipped $0.02 per gallon (0.070%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains down. Gasoline remains below its 20
day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0.
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Crude Oil added $0.14 per barrel (1.37%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Crude remains below its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains negative. Technical score remains at 1.0 out of 3.0.
Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
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Natural Gas lost another $0.16 per MBtu (4.05%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains down. Gas remains below
its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500
Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of
3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are
oversold.
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The S&P Energy Index added 5.90 points (0.82%) last
week. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral on a
move above 731.45. The Index moved above its 20 day moving
average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed
from negative to neutral. Technical score improved to 2.0 from
0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
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The Philadelphia Oil Services Index fell 3.26 points (1.07%)
last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains
below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at
1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
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Gold slipped $6.10 per ounce (0.47%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Gold remains below its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains neutral. Technical score remains at 1.0 out of 3.0.
Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
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Silver fell $0.25 per ounce (1.20%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Silver remains below its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains neutral. Technical score remains at 1.5 out of 3.0.
Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength
relative to Gold changed from neutral to negative.
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The AMEX Gold Bug Index slipped 1.27 points (0.52%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains
above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Strength relative to
the S&P 500 Index changed from positive to neutral.
Technical score slipped to 2.5 from 3.0. Short term momentum
indicators are mixed. Strength relative to Gold remains
positive.
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Platinum slipped $11.30 per ounce (0.76%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. PLAT remains below its 20 day
moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 and Gold
is neutral.
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Palladium dropped $1.70 (0.19%) last week. Intermediate
trend remains up. PALL remains above its 20 day moving average.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 and Gold remains positive.
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Copper added $0.06 per lb. (1.89%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Copper remains above its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
changed to neutral from negative. Short term momentum
indicators are mixed.
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The TSX Metals & Mining Index added 32.39 points (3.63%)
last week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move
above 931.20. The Index remains above its 20 day moving
average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed
from neutral to positive. Technical score improved to 3.0 from
2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
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Lumber slipped $0.40 (0.12%) last week. Trend remains
down. Lumber remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength
relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
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The Grain ETN dropped another $0.22 (0.56%) last week.
Trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving
average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains
negative.
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The Agriculture ETF slipped $0.12 (0.31%) last week.
Trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving
average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains
negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term
momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold.
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Interest Rates
The yield on 10 year Treasuries eased 1.5 basis points
(0.60%) last week. Trend remains neutral. Yield remains
below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators
are trending down.
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Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF added $1.15
(1.00%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units
remain above their 20 day moving average.
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Other Issues
The VIX Index added 0.63 (5.22%) last week. The Index
remains above its 20 day moving average. ‘Tis the season for
VIX to spike!
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Economic focuses this week are on the FOMC meeting on
Wednesday and the Employment report on Friday. The
committee is expected to taper asset purchases by another $10
billion. The July employment report is expected to be less
robust than the report in June. Other reports are expected to
confirm that the U.S. economy is growing at a slow but steady
rate.
Second quarter reports will continue to flood in. As of
Friday, 230 S&P 500 companies have reported to date: 69%
have beat earnings consensus, 11% met consensus and 20% missed
consensus. On the revenue side, 68% beat consensus. However,
the sectors that were expected to report the best gains
(technology and financials) already have reported. Responses to
reports have been extraordinary: Share prices have spiked
higher when revenues and earnings significantly exceeded
consensus. Share prices fell sharply when revenues and earnings
were in line or less than consensus.
Liquidity in North American equity markets is expected to
remain below average as the holiday season reaches a peak.
Canada has a civic holiday on Monday August 4th
Short and intermediate technical indicators for most equity
indices and sectors (with exceptions such as the TSX) have
rolled over from overbought levels. Most markets
effectively reached a peak on or before July 3rd. It
has been tough making money in a relatively flat market during
the past eight weeks. To put into perspective, the Dow
Industrials closed on Friday at virtually the same close set on
June 6th. Note the significant technical
deterioration that occurred by the Dow Jones Industrial Average
on Friday.
International events are expected to continue to impact
equity markets. Conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine remain a
focus. Over the weekend, Libya became an issue.
Seasonal influences on economic sensitive sectors turn
negative between mid-July and October, particularly during U.S.
mid-term election years.
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The Bottom Line
Defensive strategies are recommended. Exceptions exist (e.g.
precious metals and precious metals equities).
Tech Talk/EquityClock.com’s Latest ETF Column at
Globeinvestor.com
Published on Friday. Headline reads “Four Canadian ETFs to
boost your exposure to gold miners”)
Following is a link:
"http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/four-canadian-etfs-to-boost-your-exposure-to-gold-miners/article19768120/">
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/four-canadian-etfs-to-boost-your-exposure-to-gold-miners/article19768120/
Summary of Technical/Seasonal Trade Ideas Issued
by Tech Talk and EquityClock.com last week
None of the following investment ideas were held personally
prior to comments published in Tech Talk and EquityClock.com
(The exception is a small position held in XGD that was
purchased over a year ago). Most of the investment ideas go
beyond the investment style used by HAC (frequently due to
liquidity requirements).
"http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/clip_image049.png">
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width="522" height="366">
The above trading ideas will be monitored in future Tech Talk
reports
Special Free Services available
through "http://www.equityclock.com">www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing
seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data
base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate
cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to "http://www.equityclock.com/charts/">http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
"http://equityclock.com/pictures/VOLATILITYSP500IndexVIXSeasonalChart_EFBC/image.png">
"http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/clip_image0501.png"
width="551" height="378">
Editor’s Note: The spike in VIX is happening again this
summer.
Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions
offered in this report by "http://www.timingthemarket.ca">www.timingthemarket.ca
and "http://www.equityclock.com">www.equityclock.com
are for information only. They should not be
considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned
securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be
accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are
Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc.
All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the
authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons ETFs
Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations
found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in
the various client portfolios managed by Horizons ETFs
Management (Canada) Inc.
Individual equities mentioned in StockTwits are not
held personally or in HAC.
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC July
25th 2014
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width="494" height="141">
Copyright © Don Vialoux, Jon Vialoux, Brooke Thackray
