by Trader Mark, Fund My Mutual Fund
Earlier this spring, bond kings Bill Gross of PIMCO and Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubleline squared off on the direction of Treasuries post QE2. Gundlach won this one by a country mile, and continues to impress with his views. Below is an interview with Morningstar post S&P downgrade where he correctly states this is not so much a downgrade based on the ability to pay back debt, but one of the currency. Because as we've seen when in doubt, the U.S. will just print more, Japanese style. It's a very good interview, and instructional even for those who care little about the bond market. I wish CNBC would show more Gundlach during these times rather than simply going to Gross on every issue.
- The downgrade of the U.S. Treasuries by S&P is just silly in my opinion. The rating agency's job is historically to opine on the payback ability of various entities, and one thing seems fairly clear to me that the United States certainly has the ability to pay back its debts. Obviously, Treasury Department can just run the printing press if it comes to that.
- So there's no reason whatsoever to downgrade the U.S. Treasury. What S&P has really done I think is to opine on the value of the dollars on which you're paid back, which isn't really the firm's job. Its job isn't to make forecast about currencies or commodities. It's job is to talk about the probability of payback, and the probability of payback is 100%.
- So what you've really had is downgrade of the dollar. You could also say that S&P thinks there might be a voluntary default, based upon politicians' attitudes as revealed in the shenanigans with the debt ceiling, but I think that that's just incredibly unlikely.
11 minute video - email readers please come to site to view
