6. Current Trading Views
The following trading ideas from the Global Markets Group reflect shorter-term views, which may differ from the longer-term "structural" positions included in our "Top Trades" list further below.
In FX:
1. Stay short $/CNY via 1-yr NDFs, opened at 6.7550 on 10 June 2010, with a target of 6.50, and a 1-day stop of 6.83, now at 6.6875.
2. Stay long AUD/CAD, opened at 0.9112 on 8 July 2010, with a target of 0.9500 and a 1-day stop below 0.8850, now at 0.9452.
3. Stay short $/SGD, opened at 1.3825 on 13 July, with a target of 1.34 and a stop on a 1-day close above 1.41, now at 1.3460.
4. Go short GBP/SEK, opened at 11.30 on 03 August, with a target of 10.80 and a stop set at a one-day close above 11.50, now at 11.2914.
On Rates:
1. Stay short 5yr credit protection in Mexico vs. long 5yr credit protection in Colombia, opened at a spread of -3 bp on 16 Nov 2009, with a target of -150 bp, and a stop of 75 bp, now at -5.1 bp.
2. Close short 5-yr JPY swaps vs. a combination of 2s and 10s, opened at -41 bp on 24 Mar 2010, with a target of -20 bp, and a stop on a close below -50 bp, for a potential profit of 1.4bp.
3. Stay short 5-yr UK real rates through swaps, opened at -78 bp on 21 May 2010, with an initial target of -25 bp, and a stop on a close below -95 bp, now at -70.4 bp.
4. Stay short an equally weighted basket of 5y CDS spreads in Poland, Korea, China and Czech, opened at an average spread of 115 bp, with an initial target of 75 bp and a stop-loss of 140 bp, now at 100.8 bp.
5. Stay short UK inflation vs. long Euro-zone inflation through 5-yr zero coupon swaps, opened on 09 July10 at 1.63%, for a target of 1.2% and a close set at 1.85%, now at 1.56%.
6. Pay 5-yr Swiss swaps vs. 3-months, opened on 30July’2010 at 1.10%, for a target of 1.50%, and a close set 0.95%, now at 1.08%.
Equity Trading Strategies:
1. Stay short GS Wavefront Consumer Rotation Basket (GSWBCONA), opened at 100.7, on 02 July 2010, with a target of 95 and a stop of 103.25, now at 99.21.
2. Stay short September 2010 VIX contract, opened at 27.60, on 02 August 2010, with a target of 22 and a stop of 30, now at 27.75.
7. Recommended Top Trades for 2010 (opened on 02 Dec 2009 unless otherwise stated)
1. Stay short S&P 500 Dec10/Dec11 Forward Starting Variance Swap, opened at 28.20, with a target of 21, now at 30.61.
2. Stay long Russian Equities (RDXUSD), opened at 1645.9 for a target of 2050, now at 1683.0.
3. Stay long GBP/NZD, opened at 2.29, with a target of 2.60, now at 2.1837.
4. Close short 2-yr GBP swap rates vs. long 2yr AUD swap rates on a 1yr forward basis, opened at -268.5 bp, for a potential loss of 24 bp (inclusive of carry).
5. Close short 2-yr TRY rates through cross-currency swaps, opened at 8.77%, with a target of 12.0%, for a potential loss of 168 bp (inclusive of carry).
6. Close long 5yr credit protection in Spain vs. short 5yr credit protection in Ireland at 13 bp, opened at 70 bp, with a target of 20 bp, for a potential profit of 2.9% (inclusive of carry).
7. Stay long the GS FX Growth Current, opened at 103.5, with a target of 111.8, now at 103.84.
8. Stay long PLN/JPY, opened at 32.1, with a target of 37.5, now at 28.5295.
9. Stay long Chinese Equities (HSCEI), opened at 12616.01 on 01 Apr 2010, with a target of 15000, now at 12183.07.
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