Several weeks back, in An Update on Valuations and Forward Earnings Assumptions, Bill Hester plotted the operating profit margins that were implicitly being forecast by Wall Street Analysts (presented in red below), noting "Last October, analysts were about half way to pricing in profit margins that matched the record levels of 2007. Now, they are just about there." If this doesn't reflect the expectation of Wall Street analysts for a "V" shaped recovery, I'm not sure what does.
I'll reiterate that from our perspective, the essential difficulty of the market here is not Greece, it is not the Euro, it is not Hungary, and it is really not even the slow pace of job growth in the latest report. The fundamental problem is that we have not, as a global economy, accepted the word "restructuring" into our dialogue. Instead, we have allowed our policy makers to borrow and print extraordinarily large band-aids to temporarily cover an open wound that will not heal until we close the gap. That gap is the difference between the face value of debt securities and the actual cash flows available to service them. The way to close the gap is to restructure the debt. This will require those who made the bad loans to accept the associated losses. By failing to do that, we have failed to address the essential problem faced by the world, which is that we have created more debt than we are able to service.
