U.S. LABOUR MARKET SPUTTERING?
Initial jobless claims fell from an upwardly revised 474k level during the week of May 15th, to 460k in the May 22nd week, which was above consensus (455k) and a disappointment to be sure. The vast improvement in the second half of last year that led the turnaround in payrolls this year has completely stalled out — and not just in the past few weeks but for 2010 as a whole.
The four-week moving average has climbed back to 456.5k, which in the past was consistent with net job losses, not growth. In fact, 75% of the time in the past, employment was declining at such a level of claims and by an average of well over 100k. Stay tuned for when the Census workers fall out of the data. To put the level of claims into perspective, they are actually higher now than they were right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks (and when the economy was eight months into recession).
