If the by-products of the western credit crisis - tight credit, stimulus and quantitative easing, zero-percent interest rates, winning trades in risk - are elemental to the prevailing trend, then China, with its massive $586-billion spending program, its $1.35 trillion in new lending, and its (too?) rapid recovery, should be viewed as a significant balancing concern.
China is the countervailing global economic force, the antithesis of America, its cash-rich economy cantilevered against the weight of its debt-laden counterpart. Whether we believe it or not, China's decisions do affect us, either balancing in our favour or not.
In a decade, China has amassed the bulk of it $2.4-trillion (U.S.) foreign exchange reserve, making it the lead financier of the spendthrift U.S. economy, owing to blockbuster exports growth to consumers seeking cheap manufactured goods.
In 2008, however, the credit crisis hollowed out the export sector as credit, the global shipping business, and consumption froze, and it's growth engine seized. China's reaction was, forcibly, to fix its exchange rate, and subsequently embark on a bold and massive $586-billion spending plan.
Pierre Daillie, (AdvisorAnalyst.com), GlobeAdvisor.com, February 21, 2010.
http://www.globeadvisor.com/advisoranalyst/aa20100221.html
